Shireen M. Mazari

　　Peace and stability in South Asia has been dependent on the status of the relationship between Pakistan and India. Since the nuclearisation of South Asia, both Pakistan and India have realised that they cannot remain in a zero-sum milieu, given that there was now a basic common interest of survival for both. Both have now begun a process of rapprochement which began in April 2003, when former Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee, during a speech in Srinagar in Indian Occupied Kashmir, extended the 'hand of friendship' towards Pakistan. Both countries have undertaken a number of CBMs to improve the politico-diplomatic atmosphere.

　　Among the general CBMs, one has seen the restoration of the original strength of the High Commissions in both countries and the establishment of a hotline between the Foreign Secretaries as well as a speedy release of civilian prisoners including fishermen in both countries. More important have been the military and nuclear CBMs that have now been agreed to, including the establishment of hotlines between the Director Military Operations (DGMOs) of the two countries and also between the coastguards of the two countries. Both countries also have unilaterally declared moratoriums on the conducting of further nuclear tests. A very important agreement was reached on the advance notification of ballistic missile tests.

　　There have also been some economic CBMs, including the revival of the Joint Economic Commission, which held its first meeting in October 2005. The atmospherics in terms of people-to-people and politicians-to-politicians exchanges have been progressing fast between the two states. However, despite these positive atmospherics of the bilateral Pakistan-India peace process, India has shown little inclination of moving forward on the core dispute of Jammu and Kashmir.

　　Also, strategic stability in South Asia is now being threatened by the emerging Indo-US strategic partnership which impacts strategic stability beyond Pakistan - into South Asia and its neighbourhood.