Lieutenant General Liu Yuan
Political Commissar, Academy of Military Science

Respected Mr. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen,

　　Good afternoon!

　　Now we are gathering here to hold a forum attended by the leaders and researchers of defense and security think tanks. In the first place, I'd like to take this opportunity to talk about my understanding of "think tanks". Simply put, a think tank should be a habitat of elites, a pool of brain power and wisdom, and a reservoir of suggestions, ideas, assessments, and conclusions. Historically, we may notice that the time of drastic social transformation, different thoughts would flourish, a hundred schools would contend, and various think tanks would emerge. China's earliest security, or defense think tank came into being in the period of Spring and Autumn and Warring States about 2000 years ago. During that time, wars broke out frequently among the kingdoms. To provide war strategies for the king, high ranking officials usually provide for flocks of "shi ke" ("eating guest" in literal translation) in their house. Among them, some were "shi", meaning "scholars", who could not fare well without work. The truth in "There is no free lunch" also applied to China two thousand years ago. The major task of a "shi" was to provide advice on policies. As we know, in the Warring States Period, the most important state affair was to enrich the country and strengthen the military in peacetime, and to win a battle in war. Thus the advice from a "shi" usually focused on national defense and security. In Chinese history, there were four well-known "Nobles of the Warring States"-Xinling of the Wei Kingdom, Chunshen of the Chu Kingdom, Pingyuan of the Zhao Kingdom, and Mengchang of the Qi Kingdom, all of them in high government positions and possessing great power. In other words, they were top advisors of the kings. To offer the king some advice, each of the four nobles kept thousands of "eating guests". From today's perspective, the "Four nobles" were leaders of think tanks, while "shi" in the "eating guests" were researchers. Many excellent "shi" were put in very important positions. Kingdom Qin's Shang Yang and Kingdom Chu's Wu Qi of the Warring States Period were eventually promoted to prime ministers. Therefore, I think, though the term "think tank" is quite modern, elite groups which offer advice to the decision makers are as old as human history.

　　When we try to find out which one is among the earliest defense and security think tanks in the world, I should say the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies founded in 1831 ranks among the oldest. (By the way, to my knowledge, one of the participants present comes from this institute.) At the initiative of Duke of Wellington, who beat Napoleon in Waterloo, the institution was founded after the Napoleon Wars. At the very beginning, the institution had a specific task, namely, studying military science, or to put it in Clausewitzan terms, studying the "art of war".

　　Ladies and gentlemen,

　　Today's defense think tank is the fruit of the development of world civilization. At the dawn of the 20th century, after the great calamity of the First World War, people around the world came to realize that in a historical phase when science and technology advanced by leaps and bounds, and mass production gradually took shape, the scale and destructive power of a war could grow indefinitely. Thus war and peace were the most important issues human beings were facing. Preserving peace, preventing war, controlling crises and winning a war became the subjects concerned by all governments. After WWI, some countries like the Great Britain and the United States appealed to the Paris Peace Conference for the establishment of academic institutions to study war and peace. Against this background, two world-famous think tanks studying international security issues were set up. They were the Royal Institute of International Affair (RIIA) and the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). After the Second World War, the world's wish for peace and development became stronger and stronger, and the cry for opposing and checking wars became louder and louder. During the same period, for the first time, a suicidal prospect loomed large for human beings, thanks to the emergence of nuclear weapons. Preventing the breaking out of wars, controlling the scale of wars, maintaining the balance and strategic stability of international forces, has become the common wish of all countries. To study defense and security issues, think tanks mushroomed all over the world. Since their foundation, the RAND Corporation in the US, the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) in London and Russia's American and Canadian Studies Institute have paid their attention to research subjects such as nuclear strategy, nuclear war, limited war, and crisis management. After the Cold War, new changes took place in the international security environment, so the newly-founded think tanks cast their eyes upon the field of non-traditional security. For instance, the Nanyang Technology University in Singapore established the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (IDSS) in 1996. The institute focuses on non-traditional security issues, expanding the scope of research in defense and security, and developing into a center for strategy and defense research in Southeast Asia. Up till now, there have been more than 5000 think tanks in the world studying security and defense problems. These think tanks have made active contributions to not only the correct decision making by their governments, but also world peace and development.

　　Now the world finds itself in a new era of mega-transformation, mega-transition, and mega-development. In this new era, there are two major challenges facing the defense think tanks: the first challenge is that traditional threats of war still exist. There are sporadic regional wars and armed conflicts in all corners of the world. According to incomplete statistics, from the end of the Cold War to the present, there are altogether 160-odd regional wars and armed conflicts around the world, with an average of about 10 every year, far more than the average of 4 during the Cold War. These wars have taken toll of ten thousands of lives and millions of refugees, which have serious impact on the international and regional security and stability. In this sense, the task of studying war and peace for the defense think tanks has not been alleviated. The second challenge is that non-traditional security issues multiply increasingly. In recent years, terrorism has claimed many lives and properties. The 9.11 terrorist attack alone deprived the lives of nearly 3000 innocent people. Other non-traditional security problems like the proliferation of WMD, smuggling, drug trafficking, transnational crime, infective epidemics, natural disasters, environmental deterioration are seriously threatening human security and development. It is imperative for defense think tanks to extend their researches from the traditional areas of internal affairs, diplomacy, and military affairs, to the new areas of economy, culture, population, resources and ecology. The rapid expansion of research areas requires that think tanks must have a multiple-discipline, cross-area, transnational and comprehensive research capacity. Further, the increase and uncertainty of research objects augment the difficulty in decision consultations.

　　In the face of the above challenges, my personal view is that the security think tanks around the world should assume more historical missions. While providing advice to strategy decision makers in their own countries, security think tanks all over the world should take on the common historical missions of preventing wars, managing crises, preserving peace and promoting development. And we should so in conformity with international rules, value standards, and security perceptions which are commonly accepted. For this purpose, I propose that all the defense and security think tanks willingly assume the following obligations:

　　The first is to produce modern security know-how. Think tanks should constantly produce new thoughts, new concepts and new visions. They must break away from the old security theory stereotype and establish and perfect new concept of security. They should disseminate the conception of a "harmonious world" and promote peaceful coexistence and common development of various states, nations, religions and civilizations.

　　The second is to positively influence international security decision making. To provide advice for the government to make decisions on public policies means that think tanks are influencing decision making, public opinions and the public at large. Therefore think tanks' policies suggestions should be objective, comprehensive and forward-looking. Such suggestions should not only promote the interest of national strategic security interests and enhance the friendly interaction and cooperation with other countries, but also contribute to international and regional security and stability and promote world peace and development.

　　The third is to channel bilateral and multilateral interactions. As both official and civilian research institutes, think tanks can make contact and conduct academic exchanges between institutes and research fellows through governmental, semi-governmental, and non-governmental approaches. In this way, think tanks can build a bridge of mutual understanding and communications between countries, governments, militaries and peoples, so as to enhance mutual trust and remove suspicions, reduce differences, help coordination, promote cooperation, safeguard stability in bilateral relations and promote strategic stability of the world.

　　The fourth is to shoulder the responsibility of educating social elite. Think tanks are intellect-intensive and knowledge-intensive organizations, which feature a tolerant academic atmosphere, an open-minded research approach and a platform for international exchange. They help bring about social elite with wide horizon, good communication skill and extensive international connections. Talents from think tanks flow into management and decision-making positions in governments, militaries and international organizations, and they will become prospective members of the administration and national leadership.

　　Ladies and Gentlemen:

　　Think tanks of national defense and security in China have been established against the same backdrop where strategic landscape has undergone profound changes. Between 1950s and 1960s, a large number of research institutes on international security studies had been created to meet the requirements of both the complicated international environment and domestic economic buildup. The Academy of Military Science, where I am working now, is one of them.

　　The Academy of Military Science was founded in 1958. The AMS is an advanced research institute on military science under the direct leadership of the CCP Central Military Commission (CMC). As the national centre for military studies, the AMS plans and coordinates for the Chinese Armed Forces all the research programs concerning military science. It assists the CMC and the General Departments with theoretical perspectives that guide the development of the Chinese Armed Forces. The AMS has 5 academic departments, they are: the Department of War Theories and Strategic Studies, the Department of Operational Theories and Doctrines, the Department of Military Construction Studies, the Department of World Military Studies, and the Military Operational Analysis Research Institute. Most of the research fellows of the academy have worked in combat troops, general headquarters, military regional commands, or Army corps commands, well prepared in theoretical studies and practical experience.

　　For years, AMS has maintained a free academic atmosphere and adopted open approaches to academic debates. Marshal Ye Jian-ying, the first President of the AMS, once vividly described our modus operandi as "drinking tea, reading books, quarreling with each other and writing articles". Among them, "drinking tea" helps create a relaxed atmosphere for research and expression of ideas; "reading books" calls on the research fellows to accumulate knowledge steadily and to be keen on learning from others; "quarrelling or arguing" is to provide chances for brainstorming. "Writing articles" is the last step in the research process, providing advice for decision makers and innovative ideas for the public.

　　In the past 48 years, the AMS has provide a lot of valuable suggestions and advice for the CMC and the general headquarters of the PLA, some of them have had great impact on strategic decisions of both the nation and the armed forces. For example, in the 1960s, Marshal Ye Jianying presided over the formulation of the first-generation operational doctrines. In the latter half of the 1970s, the Political Commissar, 4-star General Su Yu questioned the military strategy of "inducing the enemies into the depth" long held by the PLA, and recommended instead a strategy of "conducting positional defense at the beginning of the future war in order to win time for the whole nation to be mobilized into a wartime regime." Former AMS President, General Song Shilun went one step further to suggest not to employ the strategy of "inducing the enemies into the depth" at the beginning of any future war. Their recommendations were adopted by the CMC, and a new military strategy of Active Defense came into being. This shift in military strategy has formed the basis for the formulation of opening up and reform policy. China's coastal area and some border areas are no long frontlines for war preparedness. Instead, they have become regions of opening up and reform, and priorities of development. In the mid 80s, President Song Shilun sponsored the research of the current strategic landscape and came to the conclusion that "it is impossible for world wars to break out in the near future, and a relatively long period of peace could be guaranteed", which was recognized by Deng Xiaoping, the then chairman of the CMC. Stemming from this outlook, Deng Xiaoping put forward the policy to center on economic construction and to realize a strategic shift in both national defense and military construction. He made the decision, therefore, of downsizing the PLA by 1 million. At the beginning of the 1990s, President Jiang Zemin, after being briefed on the Gulf War presented by the AMS, required that the PLA must win hi-tech local wars under conditions of modern technology. He then put forward his strategic thoughts of pushing forward RMA with Chinese characteristics in an all-round way, which has been integrated into the Active Defense Strategy. Recently, President Hu Jingtao of CMC and the leadership have attended briefings by AMS researchers, and have often given important feedback on reports submitted by the academy.

　　To sum up, in the 48 years of development, the AMS has made remarkable achievements in military theoretical studies and completed large numbers of high quality research and review reports. It has also nurtured a great number of qualified talents in both theoretical studies and strategic consultation, thus making its due contribution to China's national defense modernization drive, promotion of world peace and regional stability, safeguarding national security, and supporting national development.

　　Ladies and Gentlemen:

　　This forum on international security is a great learning opportunity as well as a platform for exchanges. We come from different countries, and have different strategic interests and academic viewpoints, however, we have been free to air our opinions on the subject of "Asia-Pacific Security and Development", and we have managed to seek common grounds while shelving differences. The discussions will be fruitful and the purpose of the forum will be achieved. On behalf of AMS, I'd like to invite you to be back more often to be our guests, together we can drink tea, read books, argue with one another, and write articles. Of course, we will prepare not only quality tea, but also quality coffee. We can swim in the sea of books, and at the same time surf the Internet. Simultaneous interpretation will help us when we argue. Together with think tanks from other countries, we can complete a grand article on developing an international community that is peaceful, harmonious, amiable and reconciled.

　　Thank you.