People's Daily: US-Philippines Alliance Won't See Fundamental Change

人民日报:美菲关系不会出现根本性逆转

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Zhang Tao
Time
2016-09-21

辱骂美总统、取消正式会晤、终止南海联合巡航、驱赶驻菲美军……最近,菲律宾总统罗德里格•杜特尔特的种种举动引发外界持续热议,使美菲关系呈现扑朔迷离之势。

对此,美国将作何应对?美菲关系的未来走向将会如何?

BEIJING, Sept. 21 (ChinaMil) -- Scolding the US president, cancelling a formal meeting, stopping the joint patrol in the South China Sea and driving away American troops stationed in the Philippines…the series of actions by the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently triggered intense discussions and threw the US-Philippines relations into a complicated state.

How will the US respond and where are their bilateral relations going?

虽有担忧 并不着急

Concerned but not worried

据美国《军队时报》日前报道,美国国防部发言人加里•罗斯继续强调美国与菲律宾的盟友关系“坚如磐石”。最近,菲总统杜特尔特屡次发布对美“挑衅”言论,但是,美国官方表现“淡定”。

The US Military Times lately reported that Gary Ross, the spokesperson of the US Department of Defense, continued to stress that the US and the Philippines are a "firm" alliance. Although the Philippine president Duterte made "provocative" remarks against the US repeatedly, the US seemed very "calm".

继“脏话风波”之后,近日,杜特尔特一再放狠话。据美联社报道,杜特尔特近日表示,将结束与美军在南海争议水域的联合巡航,以避免卷入可能的“敌对行动”,同时考虑从中国或俄罗斯采购武器。

After cursing the US president, Duterte, according to Associated Press, recently announced to end the joint patrol with the US in disputed South China Sea waters in order to stay away from possible "hostile operations" and that he would consider buying weapons from China or Russia.

另据法新社报道,杜特尔特之前以美军易遭伊斯兰极端分子袭击为由,要求在菲律宾南部棉兰老岛的所有美军特种部队“必须走”。

AFP also reported that previously Duterte demanded all US special operation troops stationed on the Mindanao Island in southern Philippines to leave on the grounds that they were susceptible to the attack of Islamic extremists.

杜特尔特的言论引发了一部分人的担忧。美国《军队时报》援引新美国安全中心学者克罗宁的分析称,“杜特尔特正把美菲同盟置于危险境地”。

Duterte's remarks worried some people. Military Times quoted a researcher at the US security center as saying that "Duterte is putting in jeopardy the alliance".

不过,美国政府官方则有意淡化处理。据《华盛顿邮报》报道,针对菲总统的“逐客令”,美国国务院发言人约翰•科比表示并未收到菲律宾政府的正式要求。

But the US government seemed to want to play down the situation. Washington Post reported that John Kirby, the spokesperson of the US Department of State, said the US was aware of Duterte’s comments, but is “not aware of any official communication by the Philippine government to that effect and to seek that result".

此外,据共同社报道,美国白宫发言人欧内斯特表示对杜特尔特“迄今反复进行离奇的发言并不感到吃惊”,并反驳美军驻扎是基于菲方要求。

According to Kyodo News' report, the White House spokesperson Josh Earnest said "surprise" was not the word he would choose, primarily because of the tendency of Duterte to make some rather colorful comments, and refuted that American troops were stationed upon the request of the Philippine government.

“总体来说,虽有担忧和不满,但美方有信心能够掌控局面,并不太着急。”中国社会科学院美国研究所外交研究室主任袁征在接受本报采访时说。

"Generally speaking, the US has the confidence to control the situation and isn't very worried although it is concerned and dissatisfied," said Yuan Zheng, director of the American Diplomacy Section of the Institute of American Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

千丝万缕 根基深厚

Deep foundation for US-Philippines relations

美方目前表现的从容淡定,底气从何而来?

Why is the US so calm and composed?

“过去阿基诺时期施行对美‘一边倒’的外交政策,菲律宾其实并未获得实质性好处。现在杜特尔特的举动实际上是想向美国提高要价,我不认为美菲会真的撕破脸。”袁征说,“美国人也明白,目前在南海问题上,菲对美的需要是只增不减。”

"The Aquino administration relied too much on the US diplomatically, but that didn't get the Philippines any substantial benefits. What Duterte is doing now is trying to ask for more from the US. I don't think they will split up," said Yuan Zheng. "The Americans know very well that the Philippines need it even more now on the South China Sea issue."

俄新社17日援引俄专家观点称菲律宾军事政治精英层内部存在一股强大力量支持美菲合作。

RIA Novosti quoted a Russian expert on September 17 as saying that there is a strong force among the Philippine military and political elites that supports cooperation with the US.

中国国际问题研究所美洲研究室主任刘学成向本报表示:“美国在菲律宾民间支持度很高,菲军方与美国关系很紧密。”

According to Liu Xuecheng, director of the Department for American Studies at China Institute of International Studies, "the common Philippine people are very supportive of the US and it also has close ties with the Philippine military."

据美联社报道称,菲律宾今年将获得来自美国约1.2亿美元的军事援助,是2000年美军重返菲律宾训练和演习以来最大规模的美国对菲军事援助。

Associated Press reported that the Philippines will have $120 million military aid from the US this year, the largest of its kind since the US military resumed training and exercise in the Philippines in 2000.

《基督教科学箴言报》称,今年3月,美菲签署新条约,允许美军在菲律宾的5个军事基地暂时驻防。

The Christian Science Monitor reported that the two countries signed a new treaty in March this year that allows the US military to temporarily station at five military bases in the Philippines.

此外,美菲之间千丝万缕的联系由来已久。中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长金灿荣在接受本报采访时说:“历史上菲律宾曾是美国的殖民地,美国在这里根基深厚。从国家政治层面来说,菲实行的是非常典型的现代寡头政治,由两百多个家族控制,而这些家族美国大部分都是可以操控的。”

The countless links between the US and the Philippines date back a long time. Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China, said in an interview that "the Philippines used to be an American colony in history, so the US has a deep foundation there. On the political level, the Philippines implements a typical modern oligarchy that is controlled by more than 200 families, most of which can be controlled by the US."

软硬兼施 加固同盟

Reinforced alliance

美国国务院一官员告诉路透社,美菲同盟关系依然紧密。

An official from the US Department of State told Reuters that the US-Philippines alliance remains tight.

“我们与他们在多个领域有强有力的合作,我们不会简单抛弃这一切。”这名官员说。

"It’s unfortunate, but doesn’t fundamentally derail the relationship,” said the official.

曾任奥巴马政府亚洲事务顾问的麦德罗斯也认为,美菲间近来的摩擦在两国关系的道路上“是个突兀的减速带,并不是阻挡前进的路障”。

The former advisor on Asian Affairs at the Obama administration also believed that the recent frictions between the US and the Philippines is a “speed bump, not a road block”.

“菲律宾是美国在亚太地区的重要盟国,是奥巴马政府实施‘亚洲再平衡’战略的重要支点国。”刘学成说,“观察美菲关系未来的发展,不应以一人一事为依据,要看清其本质,杜特尔特并没有反对美菲同盟关系。针对他的举动,奥巴马政府不会公开强硬回应,而是会继续观察并开展悄悄外交,采取幕后施压的方式。”

"The Philippines is an important ally of the US in the Asia Pacific and a key pillar state in the Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy initiated by the Obama administration." Liu Xuecheng noted that "we shouldn't make judgment about the future development of US-Philippines relations based on one person or one matter, but should see through the nature, which is that Duterte never opposed the US-Philippines alliance. Therefore, the Obama administration won't make tough public responses, but will continue to observe and carry out back-door diplomacy by imposing pressure behind the scene."

“出于利益考量,未来美国政府在人权问题上可能会有所退让,将通过软硬兼施的手段与杜特尔特进行磨合。对美国而言,‘亚太再平衡战略’不会改变,美菲同盟关系也不会有根本性逆转。”袁征说。

"To ensure its interests, the US government may make concessions on the human right issue in the future and deal with Duterte with both hard and soft means. It won't change the Asia Pacific rebalancing strategy, and the US-Philippines alliance won't see fundamental change either," said Yuan Zheng.

 

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