It's time for Japan to do reflection

接连碰壁的日本该反省了

Source
China Military
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2016-12-07

近期让日本烦心的事儿一件接着一件,自然气候的30年极寒似乎渗透到了日本对外政策中。

BEIJING, Dec. 7 (ChinaMil) -- In recent days, the situation of Japan's foreign policy seems to be a mess.

美国大选中安倍过早地选边站押错宝,只好不顾颜面地跑到美国与候任总统特朗普见面,试图以这种低姿态换取信任和支持。

In the U.S. presidential election in 2016, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prematurely bet on the wrong side and had to rush to New York to have an audience with the U.S. President-elect Trump, attempting to win trust and support with his low profile.

更主要的是如日本媒体所言要阐明美日同盟的重要性,争取美国下届政府继续推动“亚太再平衡战略”,挽救濒临绝境的TPP协议。

And more importantly, as the Japanese media said, Abe tries to explain to Trump the importance of the US-Japan alliance with the intension that the next U.S. government will continue to promote the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" and save the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, which has been on the brink of ruin.

不料安倍前脚离开,特朗普就宣布要在上任的第一天废除TPP协议,看来安倍的努力算是白费了。

Unexpectedly, as soon as Abe returned to Japan, Trump announced he would abolish the TPP Agreement on the first full day in office. It appears that Abe's efforts are in vain.

至于特朗普上任后会不会如选举中所言,让日本提高分担驻日美军的费用,还是个头痛的问题。

Besides, it is still a headache for Japan whether Trump will, just as he already said in his electoral speech, ask Japan to increase the sharing of the expenditure of the U.S. forces in Japan or not .

日俄商定普京近期访问日本的行程后,安倍政府一再释放出在“北方四岛”( 俄罗斯称南千岛群岛 )问题可能取得进展的消息,甚至为此承诺了大规模的经济合作,以换取俄罗斯在领土问题上的让步。

After Japan and Russia had agreed on the itinerary of Russian President Putin's recent visit to Japan, the Abe's government repeatedly released news of possible progress in the dispute of Northern Territories, which Russia calls the South Kuril Islands, and even promised a large-scale economic cooperation in exchange for Russia's concessions on the territorial issue.

但安倍与普京在APEC峰会上会谈后,不得不承认俄日争议领土问题的解决存在麻烦。11月22 日,俄罗斯宣布要在南千岛群岛部署导弹的决定,这无疑等于宣布日本的希望已经落空。

But after meeting with Putin at the (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) APEC summit, Abe had to admit that the settlement of Northern Territories dispute is in trouble. On November 22, Russia announced its decision on the deployment of missiles in the South Kuril Islands, which undoubtedly means Japan's hope has came to nothing.

菲律宾总统杜特尔特上任的首次国事访问选择了中国,同意通过协商谈判解决与中国存在的领土及海洋权益争端。

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte chose China as the destination of his first state visit after taking office, and agreed to resolve the territorial and maritime rights and interests disputes between the two countries through negotiations.

中菲关系取得重大突破。日本政界对此极度失望,在杜特尔特随后的访日过程中,大肆对菲律宾进行拉拢,极力弥合日菲关系,担心失去介入和搅混南海局势的支点,进而导致日本基于所谓“价值观同盟”极力构建的“反华包围圈”崩溃。

The move marked a major breakthrough in the Sino-Philippine relations, but disappointed Japanese politicians. In Duttett's subsequent visit to Japan, Japanese politicians tried every means to draw Philippines over to them for fear of losing fulcrum of intervention in the South China Sea, which in turn would lead to the collapse of the "anti-China encirclement" based on the so-called "values alliance."

然而,杜特尔特总统近期公开表示愿意追随中俄脚步,这样的结果估计是日本料想不到的。

However, Duterte publicly stated on Nov. 17 that his country is willing to follow the footsteps of China and Russia. Such an outcome was unexpected for Japan.

俗话说,“屋漏偏逢连夜雨”,越南不仅宣布停止推进TPP协议,越南国会还通过了“日本核电进口摊销案”,对日本抡上一闷棍。

As the saying goes, misfortunes never come single, also on the same day, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said "Vietnam has not had enough basis to submit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) participation to the National Assembly," and in addition, the Vietnamese National Assembly has adopted the "Japanese nuclear power import amortization case", which dealt another blow to Japan.

日本接踵而来的外交挫折看似偶然,实则合乎逻辑。安倍政府外交政策的基轴是追随美国脚步扩充自身实力,通过搭美国“亚太再平衡战略”与TPP协议便车,谋求突破战后体制的束缚,实现与美国一起主导亚太的梦想。

Japan's successive diplomatic setbacks appear to be accidental, but in fact, it is logical. The core of Abe government's foreign policy is, by following the footsteps of the U.S. and joining the America's "Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy" and TPP, to expand its own strength and then break the shackles of the post-war system, and finally to achieve the dream of leading the Asia-Pacific together with Uncle Sam.

为此,日本将对抗中国作为向美国递交的投名状,甘当美国马前卒,牵头组织遏制与围堵中国的包围圈,激化了地区矛盾,搅乱了地区和平发展的良好势头。

To this end, Japan confronts China to show its loyalty to the U.S. and acts as the willing pawn of the U.S. to take the lead in weaving an encirclement to contain China. Japan's behaviors intensified regional conflicts, and disrupted the good momentum of regional peace and development.

世事如棋,势大于局。美国身陷内外困境,民众选择了“美国优先”的特朗普而不是要继承奥巴马政治遗产的希拉里,安倍之所以押错宝,反映了日本的一厢情愿与美国的现实需要的错位。

Things and time change. Now the U.S. is beset with troubles at home and abroad and the American public chose the "US priority" Donald Trump instead of Hillary, who wants inherit Obama's political legacy. The dislocation of Japan's wishful thinking and real needs of the U.S. explains why Abe put his stakes on a wrong horse.

俄罗斯占有北方四岛是二战后做出的安排,俄国内对日本扩充军力谋求突破二战体制野心抱有充分戒备和警惕,日本自身不愿对战争罪行做出深刻反省,反而试图投机取巧,当然不会达到目的。

Russian occupation of the South Kuril Islands is the arrangement made after World War II. Russia has full vigilance against Japan's military expansion and its attempt to break through World War II system. Japan's own reluctance to make a profound reflection on war crimes is doomed to fail.

对菲律宾等亚太地区国家来说,发展才是硬道理,跟着日本与中国对抗显然是损人不利己,这些国家政策的转向完全是基于自身国家利益做出的理性抉择。

For the Philippines and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, development is the key. Siding with Japan in the confrontation against China is clearly detrimental to the interests of these countries and therefore their national policy shift is entirely based on their national interests.

时势难违。安倍政府的一连串外交挫败,是其错误对外政策的必然结果。

No one can fight against the trend of the world. A series of diplomatic defeats by Abe's government is the inevitable result of their erroneous foreign policy.

日本政府现在需要做的不是四处救火,而应是顺应潮流趋势,正视地区国家和国内人民求和平、谋发展、促稳定的呼声,不再做地区麻烦的制造者,放弃在政治右倾化和军事再武装化道路上的加速狂奔。

What the Japanese government should do is to go with the trend, face the call of the countries in the region and the Japanese people for peace, development and stability, cease to be regional troublemaker and stop its quickened advance on the path of political right deviation and re-militarization.

如果继续妄图以一己之力,逆时代潮流而去,做国际麻烦的制造者,更大更多的挫败还会到来,到那时不仅会沦为国际笑柄,还难免落个竹篮打水一场空的下场。

If Japan continues to attempt to go against the trend of the times and act as a troublemaker, then it will not only become a laughing stock in the world, but also lose everything.

 

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