What's Japan's strategic intention for deploying THAAD?

日本拟部署“萨德”有何战略图谋?

Source
China Military
Editor
Zhang Tao
Time
2016-12-09

据日本媒体报道,日本防卫省预计近期成立以防卫副大臣若宫建嗣为首的专门委员会,讨论引进“萨德”反导系统等美军新装备。

BEIJING, Dec. 7 (ChinaMil) -- Japanese media reported that the Japanese Ministry of Defense plans to form a committee headed by deputy defense minister Kenji Wakamiya to discuss the introduction of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile battery and other new equipment from the US military.

该委员会的目标是在2017年夏天之前,敲定日本导弹防御的具体蓝图。此外,日本政府相关人士透露,防卫相稻田朋美拟于12月中旬访问美属关岛,对美军最尖端陆基导弹拦截系统“萨德”进行专门考察。

The committee aims to finalize a missile defense blueprint before the summer of 2017. A source from the Japanese government also said that defense minister Tomomi Inada is scheduled to inspect the US military's cutting-edge land-based missile interception system THAAD in Guam in mid-December.

在东北亚安全格局不断恶化的情况下,日本对外声称部署“萨德”是为应对朝鲜核威胁。然而,目前日本国内已经部署“标准3型”和“爱国者”导弹拦截系统,对所谓“朝鲜核导弹威胁”的防御力量绰绰有余,何必多此一举再部署“萨德”?

Given the worsening security situation in Northeast Asia, Japan claimed the deployment of THAAD is to deal with nuclear threats from the DPRK, but it already deployed the SM-3 and Patriot missile interception systems on its homeland, which is more than enough to fend off "nuclear missile threats from the DPRK". Why does it deploy the THAAD?

显然,这不过是日本政府掩盖其军事野心的借口!日本不顾加剧地区安全紧张态势的严重后果,公然叫嚷要引进“萨德”,必然另有图谋。

It is just an excuse to cover up Tokyo's military ambition. Declaring to introduce THAAD regardless of the consequence of worsening the regional security situation, Japan definitely has an axe to grind.

充当“马前卒”巩固日美同盟

The cat's-paw to consolidate Japan-US alliance

自美国大选开始后,日本便将大量战略筹码压在了民主党候选人希拉里身上,然而大选结果却是共和党候选人特朗普当选。

After the election campaign started in the US, Japan pinned its hopes on the Democratic candidate Clinton Hillary, only to see the Republic candidate Trump become president-elect.

特朗普竞选时提出的“百日政纲”,第一项就是上台后立刻废止TPP协议,而TPP协议是奥巴马政府与日方企图在政治上压制和孤立中国而撺掇的一个多边协议,可以想象特朗普当选会令日本政府有多尴尬、多焦虑。

Trump put forth his agenda during the election campaign, and the first thing he did after taking office was to stop the TPP, which is a multilateral agreement initiated by the Obama administration and Japan to politically suppress and isolate China. We can imagine how embarrassed and anxious Tokyo was after Trump was elected.

更为重要的是,特朗普宣称在任期内将在全球范围内实施战略收缩,将更多的精力和资源投入到国内发展,尤其是在亚太战略和对日政策上。

More importantly, Trump declared that he will carry out strategic contraction worldwide during his term, especially in the Asia Pacific and Japan, and invest more energy and resources in domestic development.

特朗普在竞选期间曾对日本进行大量抨击,并已明确表示将减少亚太军费投入,要求日本承担更多驻日美军军费。

He criticized Japan during the campaign, and made it clear that he will cut military input in the Asia Pacific and demand Japan to bear more military cost for the American troops stationed there.

对于日本而言,维持巩固的日美同盟关系是日本遏制中国发展、抢夺东亚主导权以及提升自身国际地位和军事实力的重要基础,一旦失去美国的坚定支持,日本将迅速处于全面战略被动状态。

For Japan, maintaining a sound alliance with the US is the foundation for it to contain China's rise, seize the dominance in East Asia and raise its international standing and military strength. Without America's firm support, Japan will soon find itself in a strategically passive state across the board.

因此,此次日本主动要求部署“萨德”系统,进一步充当美国亚太战略的“马前卒”,不仅是向特朗普表明其紧随美国步伐的“坚定决心”,更是通过购买和部署美国武器装备变相地为美国承担亚太军费开支,以此向美国新一届政府讨好。

Therefore, Japan taking the initiative to deploy the THAAD system, which announced its willingness to continue to be the cat's-paw of America's Asia Pacific strategy, is not only to show Trump its "resolve" to follow Washington, but also to bear America's military expenses in the Asia Pacific by purchasing and deploying its weapons and equipment, so as to make overtures to the new administration.

强化军事力量剑指中国

Military buildup targets China

从日本当前的反导系统建设来看,目前日本有“宙斯盾”反导系统和“爱国者”反导系统构成的防御网。由于“萨德”系统通常负责在20公里至150公里高度拦截来袭导弹,所以日本希望借助这样的末段高层拦截系统上接“宙斯盾”反导系统,下接“爱国者”反导系统,构成三层反导体系。

At present, Japan has an anti-missile network comprising the Aegis system and Patriot system. As THAAD is able to intercept incoming missiles on the altitude from 20km to 150km, Japan hopes it can connect the Aegis and Patriot systems and form a three-layer anti-missile network.

由此可见,日本所谓部署“萨德”主要用于防御“朝鲜核导弹威胁”显然是个幌子,更深层次的原因是形成全高度、多层次的反导体系对中国的导弹武器实施拦截,以此抵消中国的战略打击力量。

This means that Japan's claim that deploying THAAD is mainly to fend off "nuclear missile threats from the DPRK" is just an excuse. Its real purpose is to establish an all-altitude and multi-layer anti-missile system to intercept China's missiles and undermine its strategic strike capability.

另一方面,“萨德”系统的X波段雷达探测距离可达2000公里,日本部署该系统后就可以对中国东南沿海的军事动向和导弹活动实施完全监视。

On the other hand, THAAD's X-band radar has a detecting range of 2,000km, with which Japan will be able to monitor China's military movements and missile activities on its southeast coast.

加上韩国已决定部署“萨德”系统,将中国东北、华北的军事活动尽收眼底,日韩又刚刚签署《军事情报保护协定》,一旦日韩实现“萨德”系统联网互通和情报共享,中国绝大部分战略核心地带将完全暴露在美日韩的监控之中,极大地破坏东北亚地区的战略平衡。

The ROK already decided to deploy THAAD, which will keep an eye on military activities in China's northeast and northern areas, and ROK and Japan just signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Once these two countries connect their THAAD systems and share information, most of China's key strategic areas will be monitored by them as well as the US, which will overthrow the strategic balance in Northeast Asia.

加剧安全局势为“修宪”铺路

Worsening security situation to pave the way for "constitutional amendment"

在朝核问题愈演愈烈、东北亚安全不稳定因素急剧增加的情况下,日本不顾中俄反对企图引入“萨德”系统,一个非常重要的战略野心就是为“修宪”铺路。

As DPRK's nuclear issue is escalating and security instability in Northeast Asia is worsening, Japan insists on introducing the THAAD system despite objections from China and Russia because it has to pave the way for "constitutional amendment".

首先,日本虽是经济大国,但政治上影响力有限,无时不刻不受到美国的制约和影响,安倍修改“和平宪法”必须得到美国的支持或默许,只有紧紧依靠美国的力量才能为“修宪”扫清障碍。

First of all, Japan is an economic power with limited political influence, and it is always under the restriction and influence of the US. To amend the peace constitution, Abe must have America's support or connivance because only the US can help it clear the way for the amendment.

其次,突破“专守防卫”政策、解禁集体自卫权必须拥有足够的民意基础,通过部署“萨德”激起中国强烈反对,进一步煽动中日两国矛盾,点燃日本民众民族主义情绪,成为日本政府达到其不可告人目的的卑劣手段。

Second, to break through the policy on "defense only" and lift the ban on the right to collective self-defense, Japan needs a solid public foundation. Therefore, it planned to deploy THAAD to cause China's strong objection and consequently flame up the China-Japan conflicts and Japanese people's sense of nationalism, thus achieving its ulterior motive.

此外,只有营造动荡不安的周边局势,安倍才可以堂而皇之地增加军费预算、完成自卫队扩编,渲染紧张的外部环境为“修宪”寻找借口。

Besides, only by creating a turbulent surrounding environment can Abe have the excuse to increase military budget, expand the JSDF and amend the constitution.

值得一提的是,安倍政府不断通过部署“萨德”等一系列手段强化军事力量、挑起中日矛盾、煽动右翼思潮,很大程度上也是为自己连任日本首相做铺垫,为将来实现军国主义复活、颠覆战后秩序埋下伏笔。

It's worth mentioning that the Abe administration took a series of steps, including deploying the THAAD, to enhance its military strength, stir conflicts between China and Japan and instigate rightist ideas. The ultimate goal is to pave the way for Abe to be prime minister again and eventually revive militarism in Japan and overturn the post-WWII order.

回应俄北方四岛导弹部署

A response to Russia's missile deployment on the Northern Territories

为解决日俄北方四岛(俄称南千岛群岛)争端问题,安倍长期致力于通过加强对俄经济技术援助以及帮助俄罗斯开发远东地区换取北方四岛的归属权,并以此作为自己的一大政绩积累政治资本。

To settle the disputes with Russia over the Northern Territories (South Kurils as called by Russia), Abe has focused on providing economic and technological aid to Russia and helping it develop the Far East in exchange for the sovereignty over the disputed islands. Abe has been using it as his political achievement and capital.

然而,正当安倍满怀期待地迎接俄罗斯总统普京12月中旬访日时,俄罗斯国防部11月22日宣布,已在南千岛群岛(日称北方四岛)中的国后岛和泽捉岛上部署了“舞会”和“棱堡”岸基反舰导弹系统,直接对日本以经济换领土的企图判了“死刑”,安倍政府苦心经营的政治幻想骤然破灭。

However, when Abe was preparing with high expectations for Russian President Putin's visit in mid-December, Russian Defense Ministry announced on November 22 that it had deployed the Bal-e and Bastion shore-based anti-ship missile systems on the Kunashir Island and Iturup Island of the South Kurils. This foiled Japan's attempt at "economy for territory" and broke the Abe administration's political illusion that it had worked so long and hard for.

日本引入“萨德”系统,意味着俄罗斯远东部分地区的军事动向也将在日本的掌控之中,日本完全有能力对俄在北方四岛部署的“舞会”和“棱堡”岸基反舰导弹实施拦截。显然,安倍此举同时意在回应俄罗斯的导弹部署,表达对克里姆林宫的“强烈抗议和不满”。

By deploying THAAD, Japan will be able to monitor Russia's military movements in some areas of the Far East and intercept Russia's Bal-e and Bastion missiles deployed on the Northern Territories. It's obvious that Abe wants to use THAAD to counter Russia's missile deployment and express his "strong protest and dissatisfaction" against the Kremlin.

Written by Dai Jinsi, Qiao Quandi from the Center for International Studies at the National University of Defence Technology

 

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