Commentary: For Taiwan Independence the Bell Tolls

评论: “台独”丧钟敲响

Source
China Military
Editor
Zhang Tao
Time
2016-12-22

圣多美和普林西比政府当地时间20日发表声明称,该国与台湾断绝外交关系,承认中华人民共和国主权。

BEIJING, Dec. 22 (ChinaMil) -- The government of the Democratic Republic of Sao Tome and Principe issued a statement December 20, local time to sever the diplomatic relation with Taiwan and recognize the sovereignty of the People's Republic of China.

这是自蔡英文上台以来第一个宣布与台湾“断交”的国家,也是“川蔡通话”之后“台湾外交”发生的第一个变故。

It was the first country to sever "diplomatic ties" with Taiwan after Tsai Ing-wen came into power and this was the first "event" in "Taiwan's diplomacy" after the "Tsai-Trump Call".

北京对圣普的行动在第一时间表达了赞赏,强调了一个中国原则的普适性,但没有多说什么,尤其对中国大陆在这起“断交”事件中是否扮演了角色只字未提。

Beijing expressed its appreciation of Sao Tome and Principe's move at first opportunity and stressed the universality of the one China principle, but it didn't say much else, especially the role played by Chinese mainland in the severance of the diplomatic ties.

但“断交”发生在这个时间决非巧合。很显然,这次“断交”是蔡英文拒不承认“九二共识”,甚至忘乎所以搞出“川蔡通话”、以此冲击一个中国原则受到的惩罚。这一事件也客观上对美国当选总统特朗普就一个中国原则发出错误声音构成了回应。

But it was not by accident that the "severance" occurred now. It is obviously a slap in Tsai Ing-wen's face for refusing to admit the "1992 Consensus" and even having the Tsai-Trump Call in order to shake the One-China principle. This was also a response to the US president-elect Donald Trump who uttered the wrong message about the One-China principle.

台湾当局用圣普政府要求“天文数字”援助而不成来解释这次“断交”,希望把公众的注意力引向与经济有关的技术层面,淡化台湾最新失去“邦交国”的政治原因,为蔡英文的错误路线脱责。

The Taiwan authorities attributed the "severance of diplomatic ties" by the Sao Tome and Principe government to its failed attempt to demand an "enormous amount of assistance" in hopes of diverting the public attention to economic reasons and downplay the political ones, thus exonerating Tsai Ing-wen for her wrong route.

台媒报道说圣普要求的金援高达2.1亿美元,而事实是,台湾的绝大部分“邦交国”都又小又穷,台湾一直靠提供援助买同那些国家的“外交关系”。

Taiwan media claimed Sao Tome and Principe demanded $210 million in financial aid, but the fact is that most of Taiwan's "diplomatic allies" are small and poor, and Taiwan has been maintaining the "diplomatic relation" with them by providing financial aid.

台湾的22个“邦交国”又缩减为21个,但圣普变卦大概只是个开始。台湾舆论纷纷担心新的“断交潮”又要来了,这种担心是有道理的。

With Sao Tome and Principe gone, Taiwan now has only 21 "diplomatic allies", but Sao Tome and Principe's change of heart may be just a beginning. The Taiwan media are worried that a new "wave of severance of diplomatic relations" is coming, and they have every reason to worry.

上世纪台湾经历了新中国成立、中国恢复在联合国的合法席位、美国同中国建交三大事件之后的“断交潮”。

Taiwan experienced a "wave of severance of diplomatic ties" in the last century after the People's Republic of China was founded, China resumed its legal position in the UN and the US formed diplomatic relations with China.

上世纪末到本世纪头8年的李登辉、陈水扁时期,台湾“邦交国”继续减少,只有在马英九执政8年里,由于马当局承认一个中国,两岸搞“外交休兵”,大陆放了台湾一马,台湾的“邦交国”数量得到了维系。

During the reign of Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian from the end of last century to the first eight years of this century, the number of Taiwan's "diplomatic allies" kept reducing, and Taiwan only maintained the number during Ma Ying-jeou's eight-year reign because he admitted the One-China principle and the Chinese mainland cut Taiwan some slack.

蔡英文拒绝承认“九二共识”是在两岸实力差距空前拉大的情况下蛮干的,如今的台湾GDP不到大陆1/20,真正退缩为一个省的规模,已毫无与大陆“拼外交”的能力。民进党当局搞“柔性台独”,必将意味着台湾的“外交自杀”。它想证明台湾是“主权国家”,但世界进一步抛弃台湾,让台湾的“主权”成为一个大笑话。

Tsai Ing-wen took a desperate move in denying the "1992 Consensus" when Taiwan fell farther behind the Chinese mainland in every way. Today its GDP is less than one twentieth of the mainland's, and it is unable to enter into a diplomatic competition against the mainland. The Democratic Progressive Party's "flexible Taiwan independence" strategy means a "diplomatic suicide" for Taiwan. It wants to prove Taiwan as a "sovereign nation", but the world is abandoning it and Taiwan's "sovereignty" is becoming a laughing stick.

特朗普称呼蔡英文一声“台湾总统”,改变不了全世界共同维系一个中国原则的格局。这个格局如此强大,特朗普也扭不动。其实特朗普显然也没想真的打破一个中国原则,他只是虚晃一枪,想把一个中国原则当成一个筹码,把台湾作为一个棋子,来与大陆开展经济利益的谈判。

Trump called Tsai Ing-wen the "president of Taiwan", but that won't change the fact that the international community is upholding the One-China principle, a fact so firm and beyond question that not even Trump is able to change it. In fact Trump didn't really want to break this principle. He just wanted to use it as a bargaining chip and Taiwan as a chess piece to negotiate with the Chinese mainland about economic interests.

完全可以预见,如果台湾不改弦更张,还有更多别的“邦交国”离它而去,转向寻求与北京建交。世界在变化,中国大陆的“一带一路”倡议与第三世界国家的发展需求形成良好对接,与中国大陆发展全面关系的吸引力大大超过从台湾得点经济援助的短线利益。只要大陆愿意接纳那些国家,台湾很难继续用小恩小惠留住它们。

It's foreseeable that if Taiwan doesn't change its tune, more "diplomatic allies" will leave it for Beijing. The world is changing, the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by Beijing is well aligned with the development needs of third-world countries, and forging comprehensive relationship with the Chinese mainland is far more attractive than the short-term economic assistance from Taiwan. As long as the mainland opens its arms, Taiwan won't be able to keep those countries with small favors.

如果民进党当局继续推进“台独”路线,台湾“外交”的最终结局就是剃光头,“邦交国”降为零。“台独”是把一条绝路假装成阳关大道走,是鸵鸟之安,它是台湾当局强加给台湾社会的羞辱。

If the Democratic Progressive Party continues to push "Taiwan independence", Taiwan's "diplomacy" will enter an impasse in the end and no country will be in "diplomatic relation" with it. "Taiwan independence" is a self-deceiving dream and an insult imposed by the Taiwan authority on its society.

必须指出,大陆统一台湾的进程事实上已经开始。当大陆很弱时,台湾以实力自重,冒充“国家”去国际社会混。然而大陆实力迅猛增长后,其强大的引力已将台湾牢牢抓住,将其归置到只能绕大陆运行的轨道。对外界来说,大陆和绕它旋转的台湾已是一体。台湾方面早点看清这个事实,并且接受它,就能早一点解脱。

It must be pointed out that Beijing's reunification of Taiwan is already on the way. When the mainland was weak, Taiwan, based on its strength then, feigned to be a "nation" in the international community, but with the rapid and robust rise of Chinese mainland, it has forced Taiwan to a marginalized position. The mainland and Taiwan have long become one entity in the eyes of the world. Taiwan will find peace with itself if it can see and accept this fact as early as possible.

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