Why Russia and Turkey agree on Syrian ceasefire?

俄土缘何促成叙利亚停火

Source
China Military
Editor
Yao Jianing
Time
2017-01-03

叙利亚局势日前出现重大转折。在多条战线取得胜利的背景下,叙军方宣布自当地时间2016年12月30日零时开始,在全国范围内实施停火,为政治解决叙利亚危机创造条件。

BEIJING, Jan. 3 (ChinaMil) -- There is a major turning point in the situation of Syria. Under the context that a number of victories have been achieved, the Syrian military announced a nationwide ceasefire from 0:00 on December 30, 2016, local time, aiming to create a favorable environment for political solution for the Syrian crisis.

耐人寻味的是,此次停火是由俄罗斯和土耳其为主促成的。两国不仅将为停火顺利实施提供保证,还在努力促成叙政府和反对派代表近期在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳举行会谈。

Interestingly, the ceasefire is a result of joint truce efforts by Russia and Turkey. The two countries will act as guarantors, but also work on to promote the Syrian government and opposition representatives to have talks in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan.

因2015年底“战机击落事件”而跌至冰点的土俄关系,在经历“三级跳”后直逼新高点。即使日前俄驻土大使遭枪击身亡事件,也并未对两国的合作产生明显影响。

Turkish-Russian relations fell to the freezing point since the Russian jet was shot down by Turkey at the end of 2015, but now it is almost reaching a new height after a "triple jump". Even after the Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot dead, the bilateral cooperation is still heading in positive direction.

俄土在叙利亚问题上的走近,除了打击极端组织“伊斯兰国”的共同目标外,更多地与双方在中东的地缘利益有直接关系。

In addition to the joint goal of purging the extremist organization "Islamic State", the geographical interests of the two sides in the Middle East weigh more in the choice of cooperation between Russia and Turkey.

对于俄罗斯而言,叙利亚是其在中东地区的重要盟国,倘若巴沙尔政权倒台,叙利亚建立起亲西方政权,俄罗斯将失去其在中东的最后一个桥头堡。在面临美国东西两端军事围堵的情况下,若出现这样的情况,对俄罗斯来说无异“雪上加霜”。

For Russia, Syria is its important ally in the Middle East. And if the Bashar regime falls and a pro-Western regime is established, Russia will lose its last bridgehead in the Middle East. In the face of US military containment of both ends, such a situation is disastrous for Russia.

其以打击恐怖主义的名义出兵叙利亚,不仅师出有名,而且也能以“打到外线”的方式,缓解在欧洲方向的压力。随着战场形势的顺利进展,俄在叙利亚问题上的影响力也越来越强,迫使美国重新与俄罗斯进行对话。在得到土耳其支持后,俄罗斯进一步扩大了中东“朋友圈”,可以更有效地“围魏救赵”、对冲美欧在东欧的进逼。

Sending troops in the name of fighting terrorism is righteous and can ease the pressure in the direction of Europe. With the smooth progress in the battlefield, Russia's influence on the Syrian conflict is also growing, forcing the US to re-engage in dialogue with Russia. With the support of Turkey, Russia has further expanded the "circle of friends" in the Middle East to more effectively hedge the expansion of the US and Europe in Eastern Europe.

作为老牌地区强国,土耳其在叙利亚问题上也有切身的利益。土耳其一直担心伊拉克、叙利亚境内的库尔德武装与其本国境内的库尔德分裂势力联合起来,将库尔德工人党视为心腹大患,认定为恐怖组织。但美国却为了自身利益,向库尔德武装提供武器,以援助其打击“伊斯兰国”极端组织。

As a traditional regional power, Turkey also has vital interests in the Syrian conflict. Turkey has always been worried about Kurdish armed forces in Iraq and Syria, fearing that they would join hands with the Kurdish separatist forces inside Turkey. And thus, Turkey has identified Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) as a terrorist organization. However, the US provides weapons to PKK for their own interests, in order to help PKK fight against "Islamic State".

为了抵制美国对库尔德武装的支持,土耳其有针对性地调整外交战略,就击落俄战机一事道歉,并在叙利亚问题上加强与俄罗斯、伊朗的协调合作。土俄两国关系逐渐回暖,两国建立了避免冲突的军方协调机制,而土耳其能越境进入叙利亚打击库尔德武装,也得益于俄罗斯的“默许”。

In order to resist the US support for PKK, Turkey has adjusted its diplomatic strategy and as a result, Turkey apologized for shooting down Russian fighter, and began to cooperate with Russia and Iran on Syrian issues. The two countries have established a military coordination mechanism to avoid conflicts and in return, Russia's "acquiescence" also allowed Turkey to cross the border into Syria to combat the Kurdish armed forces.

另一方面,土耳其与俄罗斯的走近,也与对美欧的失望有关。土耳其长期被美欧视为北约“二等公民”,三番五次遭到怀着某种道德优越感的美欧指责。

On the other hand, Turkey was disappointed at the US and Europe. Turkey has long been treated as " a second-class citizen of the NATO" by the US and Europe and was repeatedly accused by them who apparently have a sense of moral superiority.

更多时候,美欧只是将土耳其当作用来制衡中东形势的工具,但却“既想让马儿跑,又不给马儿喂草”。

More often, the US and Europe only use Turkey as a tool to balance the situation in the Middle East, but do not want to give any benefits to Turkey.

土击落俄战机缴纳“投名状”后,美欧摆出一脸无辜的表情,拒绝为土“撑腰”;在接纳中东难民问题上,土始终未能从美欧得到需要的经济支持;土加入欧盟的谈判也时断时续,始终看不到希望……

After Turkey shot down the Russian fighter, the US and Europe refused to stand by Turkey. In the acceptance of the Middle East refugees, Turkey has not been able to get the necessary economic support from the US and Europe. Moreover, there is no hope left for Turkey in the negotiations to join the EU.

更让土耳其政府寒心的是,去年7月发生的土耳其未遂政变事件中,美欧不仅袖手旁观,事后还指责埃尔多安借机肃清“政治对手”。

In the attempted coup in Turkey last July, the US and Europe did not offer any help and also accused Erdogan of taking the opportunity to clearing his "political opponent".

倒是当时与其关系仍然紧张的俄罗斯,敏感地抓住时机,主动提供情报预警,还在第一时间谴责政变是“破坏宪法的行径”。双方顺势“借梯上楼”,关系迅速缓和。

But Russia, who was in tense relations with Turkey at that time, seized the opportunity and took the initiative to provide intelligence and early warning for Turkey. Russia also condemned the coup and called it "an action that undermines the Constitution." The two sides took advantage of the opportunity and the tension quickly eased.

俄驻土大使遇袭后,两国总统都表示,这次攻击的目的是破坏土耳其与俄罗斯之间的关系。

After the assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey, the two presidents said that the purpose of this attack is to undermine the relationship between Turkey and Russia.

目前,美国中东战略呈收缩之势,持续一年多的“空中反恐”效果不彰。因此,美国的中东政策在特朗普就职后或面临调整。

At present, the US strategy in the Middle East shows a contraction trend and the "air anti-terrorism" efforts which have spanned over one year did not work out. And, the US policy in the Middle East will face adjustment after Trump takes office.

美俄可能在叙利亚问题上重新协调立场。届时,俄土之间的关系将如何演变,也有待进一步观察。

Therefore, the US and Russia may re-coordinate their position on the Syrian conflict. By then, the development of the relationship between Russia and Turkey will need to be further observed.

The article was originally published on the PLA Daily. The authors are Zhang Yini and Chen Yue.

 

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