Expert: ROK shouldn't imagine China accepting THAAD

专家:韩国别幻想中国会默许萨德

Source
China Military
Editor
Zhang Tao
Time
2017-01-05

自从去年7月韩国政府祭出部署“萨德”的决定以来,中韩围绕“萨德”部署的是非之争就一直没有停过。

BEIJING, Jan. 5 (ChinaMil) -- Since the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile battery last July, China and ROK haven't stopped arguing.

虽然期间始作俑者朴槿惠因“闺蜜门”事件发酵引发政局极度混乱,最后遭致国会弹劾,自身已无任何外交和政治筹码,但接替她的国务总理黄教安仍做出“萨德部署不可逆”的表态。

Although the currently suspended President of ROK Park Geun-hye, who started all the entanglement by approving the THAAD deployment, was impeached by the National Assembly because of the Choi-gate that threw the ROK political world into a chaos, and she had no diplomatic or political leverage whatsoever, the ROK Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn who is acting president now insisted that "THAAD deployment is irreversible".

韩国防部也释放相应信息,使一度寄希望于韩国政局导致“萨德”部署暂停、冻结抑或最终被取消的在野党及“萨德”部署地民众的诉求再次变得渺茫。

The ROK defense ministry released similar information, which shattered the hopes for ROK opposition parties and people living in the place where THAAD is to be deployed, who once placed their hopes on the ROK government to suspend, freeze or eventually cancel the deployment.

与此同时,韩国一些研究中国问题的精英学者坚持以美韩军事同盟为外交基轴,主张强化美日韩军事体制。

Meanwhile, some ROK scholars specializing in China issues continued to take the US-ROK military alliance as the diplomatic cornerstone and called for reinforcing the US-Japan-ROK military regime.

似乎形成了这样一种乐观的预测:中国不会接受“萨德”,但韩国真若部署,中国也将无可奈何。言外之意——中国拿“萨德”没办法。

They seemed to have formed such an optimistic forecast that although China won't accept THAAD, it cannot do anything about it if ROK does deploy it. In other words, they thought China had no choice but to accept it.

为韩国的执拗无奈。还有人觉得,中国动真格制裁韩国将是“杀敌一千,自损八百”,在中韩经贸“你中有我,我中有你”的相互依赖格局中,中国终将为经贸利益放弃安全利益。

Others believed that if China does sanction ROK because of THAAD, that will be a "pyrrhic victory", so China will sacrifice security interests for economic and trade interests since the two countries have become too interdependent in economic and trade relations.

更何况,韩国部署“萨德”身后还站着大块头的美国撑腰,中美眼下都无撕破脸的底气。

Moreover, ROK's THAAD deployment is supported by the US, and neither China nor US dares to have a complete falling-out now.

总之上述人士认为,时过境迁后,中国最终将默认“萨德”落地韩国。

In sum, those people held that China will eventually accept ROK deploying the THAAD system, but their views are not completely ungrounded.

或许这些韩国学者的论据并非全无道理:因“萨德”而引发的中韩对立乃至相互反制恐会产生自伤,似乎中国从地缘政治角度看,也有放韩国一马的理由。

The China-ROK confrontation or even hostility arising from THAAD will hurt both countries, and China seems to have the reasons to let ROK get away with it from a geopolitical perspective.

但问题是:“引萨入韩”论性质,真可以讨价还价吗?答案当然是否定的。

But the question is: is there any room for bargaining about the nature of introducing THAAD to ROK? The answer is no.

一是韩国部署“萨德”威胁到中国地缘安全和核心利益,中国有足够理由动气甚至动怒。

First, ROK's deployment of THAAD threatens China's geo-security and core interests, and Beijing has enough reason to be angry.

从“萨德”的前沿侦察到末段拦截能力都超出防御朝鲜的真实需求,包括军事威慑在内的中国战略纵深从此一览无余,大门洞开。

THAAD's front-end reconnaissance and terminal interception capability far outstrips the need to fend off threats from the DPRK. Once it's deployed, China's strategic depth including military deterrence will be completely exposed.

韩国学者可否想到这对中国意味着什么?一个国家的安全和核心利益面临重大挑战,即使有再多的贸易额垫底,充盈再多的文化时尚元素,于事何补?

Have those ROK scholars thought what that means for China? Once a country's security and core interests are challenged, trade, culture and fashion, no matter how important and substantial they are, doesn't matter anymore.

一些韩国学者以为中国因经济下行压力加大,东北亚地缘形势复杂,就没有刺破底线的胆量抑或勇气。殊不知,“不能拿核心利益做交换”,这在中国久已有之,是当下尤显重要的底线。

Some ROK scholars reckoned that given the mounting downward economic pressure and the complicated geo-situations in Northeast Asia, China doesn't have the gut or courage to adopt a tough stance. Don't they know that "never trade core interests" is China's consistent policy and practice? And it is China's bottom line that's especially important today.

二是部署“萨德”已不是韩国自家的事情。

Second, deploying THAAD doesn't just concern ROK itself.

韩美也好,美日韩也罢,中韩也好,中美也罢,城门失火殃及池鱼的悲剧不能再重演。在中国家门口绝对不允许生战、生乱、生事,也当然不允许这种三岁孩子都明白的隐患横行。

The ROK, the US, Japan and China, none of them can stay intact if anything happens to the others. China won't allow any instigation of war, trouble or chaos at its doorstep, nor will it allow such obvious hidden hazards.

打着防自家火的旗号却让隐忧遗患邻居,韩国这种做法貌似理直气壮,实则极不负责任。

The ROK is sending trouble to its neighbors on the pretext of self-defense, which appears righteous but is in fact extremely irresponsible.

三是部署“萨德”不仅在给中国沸腾的民意浇油,也在给撕裂的韩国社会伤口上撒盐。

Third, deploying THAAD will not only add fuel to the flame of Chinese people's public opinions, but also pour salt on the wounds in the ROK society.

所不同的是,韩国引起的中国民意之火是在给即将到来的中韩建交25周年添乱,很容易引火烧身。

The flame of Chinese public opinions ignited by ROK will make trouble for the upcoming 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, and will easily spread to burn ROK too.

一些韩国学者误以为中国政府无法承受来自民意的巨大压力;一些韩国学者甚至认为即使中韩关系恶化,该来韩国旅游的还要来,一副“民意并非尽如你愿,我自岿然不动”的架势。

Some ROK scholars mistakenly thought that the Chinese government cannot bear the immense pressure from public opinions. Some even held that Chinese tourists will travel to ROK as usual even if bilateral relations worsen, and put up the attitude that "public opinions don't follow government order and let's see what Beijing can do".

错把中国不愿伤及人文和旅游的好意当做民意压力加大的认知,如果是简单的愤青情绪尚可理解,但如果是一些精英学者的鼓噪和潜台词,那可就离逼迫中国调度民意远离韩国不远啦。

They mistook China's unwillingness to hurt cultural exchanges and tourism between the two countries for its submission to public opinion pressure. This is understandable if it is just young cynicism, but if it's the intentional hype by elite scholars, they are as good as forcing China to divert the public sentiment to be against ROK.

中国过去尊重并重视对韩合作,今后也将改善两国关系作为周边外交的重要一环。韩国一些精英智囊若据此认为,中国可以在地缘战略和国家安全等重大原则上做一味的忍让,甚至无原则的让步,未免过于一厢情愿。

China used to respect and attach importance to the cooperation with ROK, and still takes improving bilateral relations as an important part of its surrounding diplomacy. But if ROK think tanks take this as a sign that China will make unconditional concessions on major principles such as geo-strategy and national security, they cannot be more wrong.

中国是有“小不忍则乱大谋”“因小失大”等古话,但绝对不适用“萨德”部署。“引萨入韩”不是小事,也不存在因小失大。“萨德”部署已成为一种试金石,既检验中国政府的原则立场,也考验顺应民意的应对能力,当然也考验韩国政府的应对智慧及不再撕裂社会和民意的真诚。

There are ancient Chinese sayings that advise people to "forbear small inconveniences for the big picture", but that doesn't apply to THAAD deployment. The ROK deploying THAAD is no small matter. It's a touchstone that will test Beijing's principles and stance and its capability to cope with public opinions, and also test the Blue House's wisdom and sincerity in not splitting its society and failing its people again.

总之切不可忘记:“萨德”问题在东北亚地缘战略中是极其敏感的存在,“萨德入韩”的性质不存在讨价还价的余地;真想往枪口上撞的话,最终头破血流的还是韩国自己。

Relevant parties should all bear in mind that THAAD is an extremely sensitive presence in the Northeast Asian geo-strategy, and there is no room for bargaining about the nature of "deploying THAAD in ROK". If the ROK insists on going down the wrong path, it will only find itself over the barrel.

作者:黑龙江省社会科学院东北亚研究所研究员

Written by Da Zhigang, research fellow at the Northeast Asia Institute of Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, the views do not necessarily reflect those of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

 

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