Asia-Pacific security faces new challenges

亚太安全面临新挑战

Source
China Military
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2017-01-09

在亚太地区,和平发展是大势所趋、人心所向。

BEIJING, Jan. 9 (ChinaMil) -- Peace and development are the general trend and people's common aspiration in the Asia-Pacific region.

习主席在2017年新年贺词中指出,“中国人民不仅希望自己过得好,也希望各国人民过得好。”

Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his 2017 New Year speech that "We Chinese not only aspire for good living for ourselves, but also hope people in other countries of the world lead a descent life."

人类命运共同体、正确义利观、综合安全观、亲诚惠容、合作共赢和共建共享等中国理念和中国实践,必将推动亚太乃至国际局势朝着和平、稳定、繁荣的方向发展。

Those China-proposed concepts and Chinese practices, including the "Human Community of Shared Destiny", "Right Outlook on Justice and Profits", "Comprehensive Security Outlook", "Amity, Sincerity, Mutual Benefit and Inclusiveness for Win-win Cooperation", and "Joint Construction and Sharing" and so on, are bound to push Asia Pacific and the world at large in the direction of peace, stability and prosperity.

同时也要看到,亚太地区还存在许多不确定、不稳定因素,对此,要有思想准备,未雨绸缪。

In the meantime, we need to see that there remain many uncertainties and instabilities in the Asia Pacific, and we should be mentally prepared for and take precautions against them.

所谓“亚太再平衡”或改头换面继续推进

"Asia-Pacific rebalancing" may continue in changed outlook

自2011年奥巴马政府实施“亚太再平衡”战略以来,亚太地区安全形势受到消极影响,发生诸多变化。

Since the Obama administration kicked off the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy in 2011, the Asia-Pacific security situation has seen many changes due to its passive effects.

特朗普从美国大选开始就一直不被看好,但这匹黑马一“黑”到底。虽然这主要是因为美国国内因素,但在一定程度上表明,美国也正在对其外交政策进行全面反思。

Donald Trump never seemed hopeful throughout the US presidential election campaign, but he ended up being the black swan. Although this was mainly because of domestic factors, it in a way reflected that the US is reflecting on its foreign policies too.

特朗普当选总统后,发表了许多与奥巴马背道而驰的言论,预示着美国对外政策可能进行重大调整。

After Trump became president-elect, he made many remarks that went counter to Obama's policies, denoting that America's foreign policy may go through substantial adjustment.

例如,他明确表示入主白宫后要放弃TPP(跨太平洋伙伴关系协定),声称要取消实施两年多的对俄制裁,挑战美国政府一贯坚持的“一个中国”政策。

For instance, Trump made it clear that he would give up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after he took office, claimed to lift the sanction against Russia that has been on for more than two years, and challenged Washington's consistent stance on the "One China" principle.

从特朗普的经历看,他没有担任过公职,缺乏对国际关系敏感问题的了解;从其安全与外交团队人选看,白人多、富人多、退役军人多,保守主义色彩浓厚;从其执政理念看,新孤立主义倾向明显。

Trump has never been in public office, and he doesn't fully understand sensitive issues in international relations. The list of candidates for his security and diplomatic team is highly conservative because it is mostly filled by rich white men and retired veterans. And Trump's governing concept shows a strong inclination toward neo-isolationism.

其“美国优先”“美国第一”“让美国重新强大”等竞选口号,预示着美国可能减少提供国际公共产品,而“增加国防预算”“扩充军队规模”和“以实力求和平”等主张,预示着美国可能会加大军事干预地区热点的力度。

Trump's campaign slogans such as "America first", "America No.1" and "Make America Great Again" foreboded the possibility of the US providing fewer public products in the world, while his call for "increasing the defense budget", "expanding the military" and "securing peace with strength" predicted that it might step up military interferences in regional hotspot issues.

至于如何处理亚太安全事务,有各种猜测。有舆论认为,今后,美国的“亚太再平衡”战略,可能会改头换面继续推进。

There are various guesses as to how Trump will deal with the Asia-Pacific security issue, and some held that the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy may continue in a changed outlook.

东北亚紧张局势有可能更趋复杂

Tension in Northeast Asia may be more complicated

东北亚大国云集、矛盾丛生、冷战痕迹明显,对亚太安全有举足轻重的影响。进入新的一年,有两大趋势值得关注。

Northeast Asia has many big countries, a range of conflicts cluster, and it remains obvious legacy from the Cold War. It is of vital importance for Asia-Pacific security, and two trends in it are worth close attention in the new year.

日本军事外向化明显增强,主动介入地区安全事务的程度超出以往。

Japan obviously works harder to send its troops overseas and more actively interferes in regional security affairs.

安倍政府上台以来,以“切香肠”的方式,不断突破战后日本奉行了几十年的“专守防卫”方针,放弃“自我约束型”军事发展道路。

After Shinzo Abe came into power, the Abe authority has constantly broken the "exclusively defensive" guideline that Japan has observed for decades, and given up the "self-restricting" path of military development.

2015年9月通过的新安保法案,使日本自卫队行使集体自卫权和向海外派兵“法律化”。日美签订的新《日美防卫合作指针》,不断扩大覆盖范围。

The new security bills passed in September 2015 granted Japan's Self Defense Forces (JSDF) to exercise the right to collective self-defense and send troops overseas, and the new Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation covered an ever larger scope.

美日同盟正成为事实上的全球性军事同盟,其职能变化对地区和国际安全带来重大影响。

The US-Japan alliance is becoming a de facto global military alliance, and the change in its function will impose major impacts on regional and international security.

朝鲜半岛形势持续紧张,不排除突变的可能。

Situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense with the possibility of conflicts.

2016年,朝鲜进行两次核试验、数十次导弹试验,“两弹”结合速度明显加快。照此速度发展下去,不论是朝鲜的战略打击能力,还是美国的“战略忍耐”限度,都有可能突破临界点。

In 2016, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had two nuclear tests and tens of missiles tests, and acted faster in combining nuclear bomb with missile. If it continues at this space, both DPRK's strategic strike capability and America's "strategic forbearance" may reach the critical point.

美国在韩国部署“萨德”系统,企图将半岛作为美国亚太导弹防御系统的重要支点,严重损害中国和俄罗斯的战略利益,严重破坏地区和平稳定。

The US decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in ROK and wanted to take the Korean Peninsula as a pivot in its Asia-Pacific missile defense system, which seriously harmed China's and Russia's strategic interests and disrupted regional peace and stability.

南海形势好转仍有干扰因素

South China Sea situation improves but still with interferences

2016年7月,由菲律宾前政府挑起的所谓“南海仲裁案”裁决出炉,试图全面否定和侵蚀中国在南海的有关主权和海洋权益。

In July 2016, an award was given on the so-called South China Sea arbitration case initiated by the former Philippine government, which tried to comprehensively deny and encroach upon China's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea.

面对这一披着法律外衣的政治挑衅,中国政府坚决回击。随着菲律宾政府换届,南海形势出现积极变化。

In face of this political provocation disguised under the cloak of law, the Chinese government fought back resolutely. But after Manila ushered in a new president, the South China Sea situation saw positive changes.

杜特尔特总统对中国进行国事访问,同意回归到对话协商的轨道妥善处理南海问题,这符合中菲根本利益,也有利于地区和平与稳定。

The Philippine President Duterte paid a state visit to China, where he agreed to return to the path of dialogue and consultation to properly address the South China Sea issue, which complied with the fundamental interests of both countries and was conducive to regional peace and stability.

同时,中国与东盟有关国家的对话协商进程也在不断推进。

Meanwhile, the dialogue and consultations between China and certain ASEAN member states made progress.

在2016年9月举行的中国-东盟领导人会议上,各方承诺完整有效落实《南海各方行为宣言》,在协商一致的基础上实质性推动早日达成“南海行为准则”。

At the ASEAN-China Summit held in September 2016, all parties vowed to implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea comprehensively and effectively, and to take concrete steps to reach the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea at an early date on the basis of consultation and agreement.

然而,在南海局势积极向好之际,域外某些国家不是积极支持对话,而是干扰对话、制造麻烦。

However, as the South China Sea situation showed positive signs, some out-of-the-region countries, instead of supporting the dialogue, disrupted it by making trouble constantly.

新的一年里,美国仍可能继续其在南海的军事存在和军事活动,实施所谓的“航行自由行动”。

In the new year, the US may continue its military presence and activities in the South China Sea under the pretext of "freedom of navigation".

日本可能会追随美国的南海政策,继续蓄意插手南海问题,与美国在南海举行联合军事演习,加强与东盟有关声索国的防务合作,甚至与美国进行联合巡航。

Japan may follow America's South China Sea policy, continue to meddle in the issue, hold joint military exercises or even joint patrol with the US in the region, and intensify defense cooperation with relevant claimants in the ASEAN.

这些动作,都会在平静的南海海面,掀起一些浊浪。

These actions will make waves in the peaceful South China Sea.

极端分子被“挤出”成为不稳定因素

"Forced-out" extremists become unstable factors

随着国际社会加大反恐力度,尤其是美俄可能会进行一定程度的合作,极端组织“伊斯兰国”将会受到沉重打击,在叙利亚和伊拉克的生存空间将进一步被挤压。

As the international community is stepping up anti-terrorist efforts, especially as the US and Russia may cooperate to some extent, the extremist organization IS will be hit hard, and their living space in Syria and Iraq will be further squeezed.

在此背景下,作为恐怖分子集聚地的叙利亚,有可能变为恐怖势力的“挤出地”。

Against such a background, Syria, which used to be the destination of terrorists, may become a departure station now.

受极端意识形态蛊惑前往叙利亚、经过“战争洗礼”的恐怖分子,也可能被“挤”回母国,成为不稳定因素。尤其在中亚、南亚、东南亚地区,需要特别关注。

Terrorists that were drawn to Syria by extremist ideas and have been "baptized" by war there may be forced back to their home country and become unstable factors. This is worth special attention in Central Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

同时也要看到,亚太地区乃至世界格局,变是必然。各种变化之中,除了挑战,也蕴含新的机遇。

We should bear in mind that whether it's the Asia-Pacific or the world in general, change is the inevitable trend, which will bring both challenges and new opportunities.

作者:赵小卓 李天洋 单位:军事科学院中美防务关系研究中心、武警部队政治工作部文网中心。

The article is written by Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo from the Center of China-US Defense Relations of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, and Li Tianyang from the Political Work Department of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force.

 

 

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