Japan-Australia defense cooperation will disturb China’s ocean strategy

日澳防务合作 牵制干扰中国远洋战略

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2018-01-31 11:35:37

Written by Hu Bo, executive director of Maritime Strategy Research Center of the Beijing University

作者 胡波 北京大学海洋战略研究中心执行主任

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull began his visit to Japan on Jan. 18. Some media stated that Australia and Japan will sign an agreement on military exchange and hold high-level dialogues.

1月18日,澳大利亚总理特恩布尔开始访问日本,有媒体称澳日双方将签署军事互访协议并展开高层对话。

In fact, Australia and Japan have been negotiating military exchange agreements since 2014. Since this agreement represents the institutionalization of defense cooperation between the two countries, it has drawn a lot of media attention.

其实自2014年开始,澳日就一直在就军事互访协议进行谈判。由于此协议代表澳日两国在防务合作上的制度化,因此备受关注。

In a recent statement, Turnbull said that there will be more joint exercises, information sharing and cooperation in the defense industry between Australia and Japan. The signing of this agreement will definitely enhance the military cooperation and bilateral relations between the two sides and expand their radius of effective operations and military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region.

在近日的声明中,特恩布尔表示,澳日两国将会有更多的联合演习、信息共享和国防工业合作。不难看出,该协议的签署无疑会大幅提升澳大利亚和日本的军事合作和双边关系,扩大双方在亚太区域的有效活动半径和军事行动能力。

In recent years, Japan passed the new "Japan-U.S. Guidelines for Defense Cooperation" and the new security legislation. This essentially exceeded the purely defensive defense strategy of Japan.

近年来,日本通过新《日美防卫合作指针》和新安保法,已经实质上突破了“专守防卫”的和平宪法限制,日本自卫队正积极走向远洋。

At the same time, Japan's Self-Defense Force are now actively going to the oceans. While Australia is located at the trans-oceanic hub of Pan-Asia, Japan's cooperation with Australia will significantly enhance its military capabilities in the South Pacific and the East Indian Ocean.

而澳大利亚地处泛洲跨洋之枢纽,日本与其合作将能显著增强自己在南太平洋和东印度洋的军事活动能力。

For Australia, its cooperation with Japan will strengthen its capability to respond to the hot issues in the Asia-Pacific region such as the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

对于澳大利亚而言,与日本的合作将强化其针对朝鲜半岛、东海和南海等亚太热点事务的反应能力。

Against the background of Trump's frequent emphasis on the need for allies to strengthen their own defense and assume greater responsibility, the military cooperation between Australia and Japan has a strong motivation of "joint self-improvement".

在特朗普频频强调美国的盟友要加强自主防卫、承担更大责任的背景下,澳日的军事合作带有较强的“联合自强”动机。

Japan and Australia are the two most important countries in the Asia-Pacific alliance system of the United States. Playing the roles of "north anchor" and "south anchor," their military cooperation will also have greater impact on the entire U.S.-led system in the Asia-Pacific.

日澳是美国在亚太同盟体系中的两个最重要的国家,作为“北锚”和“南锚”,它们间的军事合作也将对整个亚太美盟体系产生较大的影响。

In response to the rise of China and the cost transferring, the U.S. has been encouraging its Asian-Pacific allies and partners since the Obama administration to strengthen their horizontal ties with each other, promote the strengthening of military cooperation between Japan and the ROK, Japan and Australia, Japan and the Philippines, and establish the security network between U.S., Japan and ROK, U.S., Japan and Australia and even U.S., Japan, Australia and India.

出于应对中国崛起和转移成本的考虑,自奥巴马政府开始,美国一直在鼓励其亚太盟友及伙伴加强彼此间的横向联系,推动日韩、日澳和日菲等加强军事合作,构建美日韩、美日澳甚至是美日澳印的安全网络。

Apparently, the cooperation between Japan and Australia is obviously the most important part of the entire security network. Peter Leahy, former chief of the Australian Army, said the agreement is a substantive move by the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India.

日澳间的合作显然是整个安全网络中的重中之重,澳前陆军司令莱西称,该协议是美日澳印“四方安全对话”走向实质化。

Although both countries avoided mentioning China in the open discussion on the agreement, the fact of dealing with the so-called "threat from China" has become one of their major objectives.

虽然在对该协议的公开讨论中,日澳都避免提及中国,但事实上,应对所谓“来自中国的威胁”成了其主要目标之一。

Geographically, if the military security tie is connected between Japan and Australia, or even between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, it will exert enormous pressure on the implementation of China's maritime strategy from the outside. It will also greatly contain and interfere with China's maritime strategy. In this regard, China has to be straight forward, since they have no other option.

地理上,若日、澳乃至美、日、澳、印在军事安全上成功联接起来,将从外线给中国海洋战略的实施构筑巨大的压力,并对中国远洋战略构成较大的牵制和干扰。对此,中国无须讳言,也不容回避。

Of course, this is only a sign. The agreement is still far from a formal military alliance. However, China should maintain its vigilance and attention. But it is not necessary to exaggerate the substantive threat of the agreement. In the specific practice and operation, the ambitions of Australia and Japan are somewhat out of step with the reality of the international situation. It remains to be seen how far Australia and Japan can go.

当然,眼下仅仅是有这个迹象和苗头,该协议离正式的军事同盟尚有较大距离,中国应保持高度警惕和重视,但也没必要夸大该协议的实质威胁。我们需要看到,在具体的实践和操作之中,澳日的雄心壮志与现实国际格局有些格格不入,能走多远还有待观察。

Building and strengthening the alliance system targeting China based on the island chain is a mentality of full-fledged Cold War. It is not easy to carry out the strategy under current international layout of "a community with a common future in which all countries are interdependent".

以岛链为基础打造和强化针对中国的同盟体系,这是十足的冷战思维,在当今“你中有我、我中有你”的国际格局中要贯彻实施,说易行难。

There are numerous economic and social ties between China and Japan and China and Australia. China has long been the largest trading partner of Australia and Japan. Therefore, Australia and Japan need to weigh their security concerns and economic interests.

中国与日本和澳大利亚之间都存在千丝万缕的经济和社会联系,长期是日本和澳大利亚的最大贸易伙伴。

There should be a line drawn when it comes to take precautions against China. For Japan and Australia, it is unrealistic to provoke a comprehensive security confrontation with China and to continue sharing the economic interests of China's rise at the same time.

因此,澳大利亚和日本需要权衡安全关切和经济利益,提防中国也得有个度。无论是日本,还是澳大利亚若要挑起与中国的全面安全对抗,同时还想继续分享中国崛起的经济利益,显然是不现实的。

China has always been good with others, and it won't attack others unless attacked by others. The outside world needs to carefully study China's strategic culture and should not treat China's patience of "seeking harmony as its cause" and its focus on the overall situation as weaknesses.

中国向来与人为善,不到万不得已绝不刀兵相向。外界需要认真研究中国的战略文化,不要将中国“以和为贵”的忍耐和顾全大局当成软弱可欺。

The risk and the cost are unbearable for any country trying to stimulate China's will to fight at the current strength and scale of China. As long as the Chinese people are determined and united, there is no chain that can lock China.

以中国目前的国力和规模,刺激中国的斗争意志,这样的风险和代价是任何国家都无法承受的。只要中国众志成城,以中国的智慧,相信没有什么锁链能够锁住中国。

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