International arms control enters great transitional phase

专家:国际军控正处于一个大转变时代

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2018-11-26 18:02:07

BEIJING, Nov. 26 (ChinaMil) -- The Sixth Young Scholars’ Forum in Chinese Studies was held on Saturday. During the forum, Guo Xiaobing, Deputy Director of Institute of Security and Arms Control Studies of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that the international arms control is currently going through a great transitional phase, and explained its tremendous changes in nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear security.
24日,中国现代国际关系研究院军控与安全研究所副所长郭晓兵在参加第六届中国国际问题研究青年学者50人论坛时,阐述了当前国际军控的三方面巨大变化。郭晓兵表示,现在军控正处在一个大的转变的时代。核裁军,大国之间的军备竞赛以及控制问题。核不扩散,根据核不扩散武器条约,不能向NPT规定的核武器国家以外的其他国家扩散核武器。核安全,防止恐怖分子获取核武器,这三个层面都发生着巨大的变化。
 
Firstly, the nuclear arms control, narrowly defined as the nuclear disarmament, is presently entering into the phase of aggressive major power competition. The original international arms control system is collapsing. The new system would be completely different from the previous ones.
第一,狭义的核军控,即核裁军,现在进入激烈的大国博弈期,原有的军控体系正在崩溃,与之前的完全不同。
 
Secondly, the nuclear non-proliferation is entering into a plateau period. The period of horizontal proliferation has passed. Although the diplomatic struggle can be very aggressive, many countries have technically capped it.
第二,核不扩散,正进入一个平台期。横向扩散的爆发期已经过去,外交斗争可以很激烈,但不少国家从技术上已经封顶。
 
Lastly, the nuclear security has entered into a subdued and stable period since last year.
第三,核安全,从去年开始进入了平淡期。
 
In addition, Guo said that the US nuclear policy has also made some important adjustments this year. Firstly, its major objects of nuclear deterrence have changed a lot. Nuclear terrorism used to be the biggest threat to the US. However, now the US new policy said that Russia, China, the DPRK and Iran are its major four threats. Secondly, the application of nuclear weapons is getting wider. The US announced for the first time that nuclear weapons will be used to retaliate against air attacks, space weapon attacks and cyber weapon attacks. Thirdly, the US is developing low-yield nuclear weapons in some regions, which increases its means of nuclear deterrents.
此外,美国今年的核政策,也作出了比较重要的调整。 一是核威慑对象作出了大幅度调整。以前称核恐怖主义是美国最大的威胁,现在明确列出来,俄、中、朝、伊是四大威胁。二是核武器应用范围广,第一次说要用核武器来报复天、太空武器和网络武器的攻击。三是主要在地区搞低当量核武器,增加了核威慑手段。

 

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