By Wang Xinyuan

On January 15th, the US-Russia delegation held consultations on issues related to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in Geneva. But talks did not make any progress due to their disagreement. The United States and Russia are locked in a tit-for-tat situation. Meanwhile, both sides have vigorously developed and upgraded their own missile performance and have built anti-missile systems, which has intensified global tensions. If the two countries continue to do that, the security pattern may become unbalanced and the arms control system may be destroyed.

Abolition of the INF treaty is a foregone conclusion

Andrea L. Thompson, US Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, told the media on January 16th that Russia must completely destroy the land-based 9M729 (known to NATO as SSC-8) cruise missiles and relevant launchers, otherwise the United States will officially withdraw from the INF Treaty.

However, the Russian side said that the target missiles developed for the US anti-missile systems can be classified as intermediate-range missiles, and the MK-41 vertical launching system, which is used to launch anti-missile interceptor for the land-based Aegis Ashore missile defense system, can also launch Tomahawk cruise missiles. That is to say that the US is also actually violating the INF Treaty.

At the end of the meeting, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that the US side hadn’t been prepared to engage in specific dialogues on other issues. The United States deliberately ignores Russia’s concerns, showing that it has no intention to make concessions and lacks sincerity to solve the problem.

Competition of the two sides in standoff aggravates

The mutual accusation between the United States and Russia in terms of the INF Treaty is a microcosm of their development of advanced weapons and pursuits of relative superiority in military field. The abolition of the treaty will end up with completely ridding the two countries from the shackles to deploy the prohibited weapon systems. Consequently, the two countries will take more deterrent measures to safeguard their own security, intensifying the US-Russian arms race.

To warn and regulate the US move, Russia has highlighted the “asymmetric advantage” of its strategic nuclear forces. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced this year’s five major tasks of the Russian military on January 15th. The first step is to improve the combat capability of its strategic nuclear forces. The most eye-catching thing is that Russia’s first regiment equipped with Avangard hypersonic missile systems will be established in 2019 and assume combat duty.

At the same time, the United States is seeking to expand the scope of its missile defense system at an unprecedented scale. On January 17th, the US Department of Defense announced its first Missile Defense Review (MDR) in nine years, pointing out that the United States will deploy sensors in space to advance the construction of anti-missile systems in space. In response to Russia, the United States plans to build 20 new land-based missile interception platforms in Alaska and update its anti-missile systems in Poland and Romania.

The US-Russia game is getting worse

At present, both the United States and Russia have relatively mature nuclear strike capabilities at strategic and tactical level to launch both nuclear and conventional missiles from land, sea, and air. Besides, the two countries have established relatively sound anti-missile systems. Land-based missiles with a range of 500 km to 5,500 km do not pose any technological difficulties to the two countries. Although the INF Treaty has existed in name only, the geostrategic significance of the treaty has been inherited since the Cold War period. The abolition of the treaty will undoubtedly make the all-round competition between the United States and Russia fiercer.

As the threat to the Russian mainland is becoming more direct, Russia has placed more emphasis on the importance of the INF Treaty for arms control, and intends to seize the commanding heights from a moral point of view and in the public opinion.

Some analysts pointed out that in the current atmosphere, it will be hard to renew another key arms control treaty—the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty—when it expires in 2021. In order to ease its strategic pressure, Russia is likely to set new agendas in other aspects, which will lead to a chain reaction from these aspects.

For instance, in response to the Ukrainian general election scheduled at the end of March and the withdrawal of the United States troops from Syria, Russia may further intervene in these affairs, so its strategic conflict with the United States will grow even more intense.

Europe will undoubtedly become the front line of a potential military confrontation, and also the focus of wooing on the part of the United States and Russia. The real purpose of the United States to withdraw from the INF Treaty is to consolidate its European allies who are increasingly estranged from the US, while Russia is utilizing the differences between “old Europe” and “new Europe” to carry out its activities.

Disclaimer:The author is Wang Xinyuan. The article was published on the China's National Defense newspaper on January 23. It is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online.