By Wang Zhen

王珍

According to media source, representatives of the Venezuelan government and the opposition traveled to Oslo, the Norwegian capital, for talks. As soon as the news was released, it attracted global attention as it would bring a glimmer of hope for the imminent crisis in the South American country. It was not the first time that the Venezuelan government and the opposition held talks, but this time, it seemed different.

据外媒报道，委内瑞拉政府和反对派日前派高级代表赴挪威首都奥斯陆进行“谈判”。此讯一出立即引起国际社会关注，似乎给战火一触即发的委危局带来一丝希望之光。委朝野对话不是第一次，但此次与以往多次有所不同：

First, this negotiation was a result of stalemate between the two parties after long-term “fierce” wrestling. The Nicolás Maduro administration’s ability to control the situation was improved after the failure of the “April 30 coup”. Nonetheless, the Venezuelan government is facing great challenges and an increasingly deteriorating political culture. Under such circumstances, it must find a solution to stabilize the situation and consolidate its foundation, while seeking reconciliation through negotiations is an option. Over the past four months since Juan Guaidó declared himself as the “interim president” of Venezuela, he has made a multitude of attempts to win power by relying on support from the U.S., but all were in vain. The “final offensives” he launched have also been proven useless. Facts have repeatedly proved that no one would win if this situation continued. Both parties need to sit down at the negotiating table without further wasting resources, for the sake of national economy and the livelihood of the people.

第一，此次“谈判”是经过长期“殊死”搏斗之后，双方力量相持的结果。自“4•30政变”被挫败后，马杜罗政府控局能力有所加强，但面对的挑战更加尖锐，执政环境继续恶化，必须另辟蹊径稳局固本，通过谈判争取和解是一个选项。瓜伊多自封“临时总统”4个月以来，倚仗美国支持左冲右闯一事无成，多次发起的“最后攻势”也未能掀起大浪。事实一再证明，当前局面继续下去难有赢者，无论是为了避免更大消耗，抑或为了国计民生，都需要坐下来谈。

Second, this negotiation accorded with the will of the people. Cries of discontent have risen among Venezuelan people after years of political turbulence. Such discontent not only targets at the Maduro administration, but also increasingly towards the opposition and its leader Guaidó. Given the continued US “maximum pressure” and threatening to use “armed forces” to intervene in the Venezuelan crisis, Guaidó acted on the U.S. influence in the struggle for power, which undermined the national pride of the Venezuelan people and incurred grievances. At present, the overwhelming majority of the Venezuelan people called for “peace over chaos.” In the long run, this reflects an inevitable trend among the public. In this circumstance, both Maduro administration and the opposition try to play a lead role in “peace talks.” The Maduro administration already took the initiative as it has long called for reconciliation, and the opposition must take some actions in this regard to avoid passivity.

第二，此次“谈判”是人心所向的结果。长期动乱，怨声载道。这些怨声不仅是针对马杜罗政府，而且越来越强烈地指向反对派和瓜伊多。特别是在美国极限施压，不停挥舞动武利剑的形势下，瓜伊多挟洋自重，伤害委民众民族感情，招致普遍反感。当前，在委广大群众中，占压倒优势的呼声是“要和平不要战乱”。从长远来看，这是不可阻挡的民望潮流。因此，马杜罗政府和反对派都要抢“和谈”之旗。马杜罗政府一直呼吁和解，已得先机，反对派必须有所行动，才能避免陷入被动。

Third, this negotiation was partly attributed to the efforts of the international community. The pro-justice force of the international community including China has played a significant role in preventing the escalation of the Venezuelan crisis by opposing intervention and promoting peace through various channels and methods, which is an indispensable international factor that made the Oslo negotiation possible. Some media organizations noted in their reports that the “negotiation” happened to take place after U.S. Secretary of State Michael Richard Pompeo visited Russia, and the coincidence of opportunity was intriguing. Russia and the U.S. have taken opposite stances on the Venezuelan crisis, criticizing each other. Both have once taken some “major actions.” However, during the talks with Russia’s foreign minister, Pompeo said that the U.S. also opposes “external intervention” and advocates that the Venezuelan crisis should be “settled by the Venezuelan people themselves”, which seemed to have found common ground between Russia and the U.S. It was surprising that Pompeo would say so, nevertheless his words is worth pondering. Reading between the lines, perhaps Pompeo was merely trying to make pre-endorsement for the Oslo talks.

第三，此次“谈判”是国际社会推动的结果。包括中国在内的国际社会主持正义的力量，通过各种渠道和方式反对干涉，劝和促谈，对防止委危局进一步恶化起了重大作用，这是促成奥斯陆谈判的不可或缺的国际助力。一些媒体特别注意到，此次“谈判”发生在美国国务卿蓬佩奥访问俄罗斯之后，机缘之巧合耐人寻味。俄美在委问题上立场对立，互相指责，而且都采取了一些“大动作”。但在两国外长会谈中，蓬佩奥居然大讲美国也“反对外来干涉”，也主张委问题“应由委人民解决”，似乎在俄美之间寻找到了“共同点”。此话出自此公之口固然令人诧异，但也值得深思，其中似有伏笔，或为奥斯陆会谈背书？

Considering the long-standing Venezuelan crisis, deeply-rooted contradictions between the government and the opposition and complicated international situation, there seems to be no easy solution to the problem. It would be hard for both parties to reach consensus at the talks, even harder to sign an agreement on the governance of Venezuela, or to put such an agreement into practice. Nevertheless, a talk remains better than no talks. The negotiation would at least relieve the tension, making it possible for the people to breathe a sigh of relief and focus on improvement of their living standards, and for the national divergence to be mended or at least not to expand any further. As the first step to peace, if the negotiation can stabilize the current situation, restore order on the streets and make ordinary people to live a “normal” life, it would be good news for the Venezuelan people. The international community and the Venezuelan people should work together to drive and urge parties involved in the talks to take into account the whole picture and spare no effort to strive for the interests of Venezuela and its people. Perhaps there will be twists and turns and even struggles in the process of negotiation, but everything will go well as long as it sticks to a positive direction.

委内瑞拉危机旷日持久，朝野对立根深蒂固，国际背景错综复杂，无论何种破解办法都绝非易事。要谈出结果来很难，就治国理政达成协议更难，达成协议落实起来难上加难。但无论如何谈比不谈好。谈，就有缓机，百姓就可休养生息，民族裂痕就有望弥合，至少不再加深。作为第一步，如能通过谈判把形势稳下来，让街头静下来，使老百姓能正常生活，则委人民幸甚。国际社会和委民众应共同努力，推动、督促谈判各方顾全大局，为国为民不遗余力。可能有曲折，谈谈停停，谈中有斗，但只要不逆转就好。

(The author is a senior researcher at the China Foundation for International Studies and former Chinese Ambassador to Venezuela.)

(作者是中国国际问题研究基金会高级研究员、前驻委内瑞拉大使)

Disclaimer: This article is originally published on Global Times, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

声明:本文由《环球时报》首发，由中国军网英文版编译发布。本文中出现的信息、观点或意见均不代表中国军网英文版的立场。