It's hard to promote peace by pushing through Trump's “Deal of the Century”

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Wang Kai
Time
2019-05-27 17:38:03

By Wang Jin

The so-called “Deal of the Century”,led by the US, yet to be unveiled in public, has aroused concerns from Middle East countries which are also involved in recent escalatory crisis between the US and Iran. Since Donald Trump took office, “Deal of the Century”, often mentioned by him, has been delayed repeatedly and resulted in several versions of the deal. Introduced two years ago, the “Deal of the Century” was postponed for a couple of times due to the US mid-term elections and the Israel elections and is expected to be officially released after the Islamic Ramadan this year.

Among the Trump administration's Middle East policies, the so-called “Deal of the Century” is the most ambitious one to be launched for peace in the Middle East. In order to do this, President Trump appointed the White House senior adviser, his son-in-law, Jared Kushner as the actual“trader”of the deal. So far, there have been a lot of talks, but no action for the deals for over two years, and raised much international curiosity and speculation. On May 19, the White House announced that it will hold an “economic seminar” to discuss the economic part of the Middle East peace deal in Manama, capital of Bahrain, from June 25 to 26, while the political part of which including issues on Palestinian sovereignty, territories and borders, as well as the division of Jerusalem, will be dealt with separately.

However, the proposal was immediately opposed by the parties concerned. Nabil Abu Rudeineh, a spokesman for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, said on May 20 that a peace deal without political content is “fruitless” and any US peace deal that ignores the Palestinian people's desire to establish an independent state is doomed to fail. The majority of Arab media also believe that the “Deal of Century” won't work. Jordan’s Ad-Dustour said that the Middle East peace deal should not be fragmented or lose sight of each other. Instead, it should be comprehensive and address core issues including the return of Palestinian refugees and Israeli settlements.

In fact, no matter how long it is in the making, the Trump administration's “Deal of the Century” is doomed to fail from the start since it is “politically in favor of Israel, and tries to appease the Palestinians with potential economic dividends”.

First, the US has long lost its role as an “impartial mediator”. The Trump administration chose to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, recognize Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights and unconditionally support Israel, all of which have already determined that the US “Deal of the Century” can only be an unfair agreement that is heavily biased in favor of Israel. Palestine was disappointed with the US after the relocation of the US embassy, and it turned to the EU to seek the “new mediator”. However, the EU has a limited role in the Palestinian-Israeli issue. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas pointed out in January this year that the “Deal of the Century” is a “Slap of the Century” and Palestine will not accept it.

Second, the Trump administration overestimated the role of economic factors in the Palestinian-Israeli issue and underestimated the political difficulties in resolving the issue. This time, the formulation of the “Deal of the Century” exposed their businessmen nature and their pursuit of the exchange of interests. White House officials said the US aims to provide $68 billion to Palestine, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. The Trump administration plans to “trade peace with investment”, or “invest for concession”, by enticing Palestinians and their allies into making political concessions through accepting investment. However, the Trump administration made a mistake. The economic problem has never been the crux of the Palestinian-Israeli issue, while the political difficulties such as the statehood of Palestine and the status of Jerusalem are the main obstacles to peace between Palestine and Israel.

Third, the “Deal of the Century” is essentially a “transaction” targeting the Palestinian issue. It is a US-led arrangement for the future Palestinian state, drawing on the interests of stakeholders including Israel and some Arab countries. This “transactional” arrangement skips the previous efforts and achievements of the international community to achieve peace between two sides, and ignores the UN Security Council resolutions. As a result, the so-called “Deal of the Century” peace deal cannot solve the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and might potentially become a “Problem of the Century” or even a “Problem of Centuries”. Now, with the Palestinian-Israel issue deadlocked, Trump's continued push for his deal may provoke a stronger reaction from the parties concerned.

(The author is an associate researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

 

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