By Wu Jian
The US has repeatedly threatened that July 31 would be the deadline for Turkey to stop importing Russia’s S-400 missile defense system; otherwise, it will “confiscate” the F-35 stealth fighter jets that Turkey purchased. Such a threat sparked fierce denouncements from the Turkish media, which declared that Turkey “doesn’t fear to lose F-35 because we have many backup plans.”
From Plan B to Plan D
According to Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak, since joining the F-35 program dominated by the US in 2002, Turkey plans to purchase at least 100 F-35 jets. However, angered by the news that Turkey purchased the S-400 missile defense systems from Russia in 2017, the US repeated threatened that it would abolish Turkey’s partnership in the F-35 program and halt delivering the F-35 jets Turkey purchased, in an attempt to force Turkey to terminate its deal with Russia. FikriIşık, former Turkish Defense Minister, accused such moves intolerable, saying that Turkish cannot tolerate others intervening in their internal affairs, let alone being forced to cancel arms deals that are obviously beneficial to their national security.
Insiders revealed that Turkey was unfazed and had three backup plans—Plan B, Plan C and Plan D. Plan B refers to the plan to develop domestically made 5th-generation fighter jets. As early as 2010, Turkey’s Defense Industry Executive Committee decided to launch the NCA/TF-X project. This fighter jet features stealth capacity, high maneuverability and high-degree information digitalization, which is expected to begin production in 2032-2035. According to YeniSafak, by then Turkey will catch up with the great powers in terms of advanced fighter jets. Before the completion of Plan B, Turkey also has Plan C and Plan D to fill the air force combat capacity vacuum, namely, purchasing Su-57 stealth fighters from Russia or FC-31 fighters from China. In April 2019, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu implied that if the US refuses to supply Turkey with F-35 fighter jets, Ankara will satisfy its need by purchasing the similar weapons from “another places”.
The YeniSafak report just clarified what “another places” mean. “The Turkish military is actively evaluating the possibility of purchasing 5th-generation fighter jets from Russia and China in case that the US halts the delivery of the F-35,” admitted a Turkish official responsible for arms purchases. “Compared to US products, aircraft from those two countries have similar performance and can fully meet our demand. More importantly, the two countries seldom affix additional political conditions to arms deals, and their products boast high quality and cheaper prices. From the perspective of time efficiency, if the US blocks the supply of F-35 fighter jets, Russia’s Su-57 will be the most immediate alternative.”
Moscow Ready to Provide Alternatives
As Turkey reveals a series of “backup plans,” Russia has quickened its pace to promote advanced fighter jets to Turkey. When interviewed by theTurkey-based international news agency Anadolu Agency, Rostec CEO Sergey Chemezov mentioned that if the F-35 deal with the US failed, Russia would be willing to discuss with Turkey on the possibility of supplying the Su-57. “In case that Ankara is expelled from the F-35 program, (Russia) is ready to cooperate with Turkey to sell its Su-57 fighter jet. It has outstanding qualities, and shows great promise for export.”
In fact, the Kremlin had already given the green light to Rostec and Sukhoi, the designer of the Su-57, for exporting this advanced fighter jet. Viktor Kladov, director for international cooperation and regional policy at Rostec, pointed out that Rostec has submitted all needed documents to the Russian government for the export of the Su-57, and has got the permit signed by President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov advocated that Moscow has the capacity to expand military cooperation with Ankara and would maintain an open attitude in this regard. Igor Korotchenko, director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade, offered that if Turkey is willing to buy the Su-57, Russia would be willing to transfer some of its 5th-generation fighter jet technologies while exporting this model, so as to achieve localized production, just as their cooperation on the S-400.
Who Is the Biggest Victim?
According to a comparison between the F-35 and the Su-57, the Su-57 overtakes the F-35 in aspects such as the maximum speed (2,600 kmh vs. 1,931 kmh), flight time (5.8 hours vs. 2.36 hours), maximum combat weapon load (10 tons vs. 8.16 tons) and maximum takeoff weight (35.48 tons vs. 31.75 tons). Moreover, the Su-57 features advantages in medium/short take-off and landing, supersonic cruise, and super maneuverability. It could be concluded that the Su-57 overtakes the F-35 in terms of tactical and technical indexes, as well as combat capacity, which made it an ideal alternative. YeniSafak doesn’t think it a bad thing if the US refuses to sell the F-35. Even if the F-35 is delivered, the Turkish military might face troubles as the US habitually imposes strict additional conditions for the use of the aircraft it exported. For instance, Turkey’s deployments of F-35 jets cluster have to be under meticulous monitoring of the US. This will create serious security risks for Turkey. Therefore, nobody regrets ‘losing’ the F-35.
However, as Italy’s Channel 3 explained, if Washington halts the delivery of F-35 fighter jets, the biggest victim will not be Turkey, but countries participating in the F-35 program. Turkey undertakes due financing, legal and management responsibilities for the F-35 program, and if it is expelled from the program, other partners will have to bear heavier financial burdens, thus creating severe troubles for those participating countries and the F-35 program.
Disclaimer: This article is originally published on Xinmin News Net, one of the biggest mainstream news network based in Shanghai City. It is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
