Russia won’t stop large-scale exercises unless threats fade out

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Xu Yi
Time
2019-08-30 18:36:27

By Li Li

The Information Office of the Southern Military District of Russia announced on August 26 that it would launch a large-scale military exercise. Commanded by the commander-in-chief of the Southern Military District, the military drill would involve military units including Russia’s Army, Air Defense Forces, Aerospace Forces and Black Sea Fleet. Why did the Southern Military District of Russia choose to conduct this large-scale military exercise at the time? What signals did Russia’s recent military moves send?

Military exercises are likely to continue for rather long period

The announcement didn’t indicate when the military exercise would end, leaving a big question mark. According to Dr. Li Li, a professor under the PLA’s National Defense University, Russia would determine the progress of the military drill according to the threats it is facing, such as military threats from the US and Ukraine as well as potential regional threats. The military exercise is likely to continue if such threats don’t disappear or improve.

Such large-scale exercises in south aim to show Ukraine military strength, and to fight for control in Syria

On August 25, Abkhazia, a sovereign republic recognized by Russia, held a presidential election, which encountered fierce opposition from Ukraine. Ukraine has already clearly stated that it must change the status quo of the “independence” of those so-called “republics” such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea, declaring that the “actions taken by pro-Russia separatists are violating the current international order.” Considering the tension between the two sides, Russia believes it necessary to prepare for military operations, such as demonstrating a gesture to support its allies.

Perhaps Syria is another factor driving Russia to organize this military exercise. Although the drill was held in southwestern Russia, it could also cover the Mediterranean region, which is within reach for participating aircraft and ships. Part of the military forces participating in the drill is probably poised for handling the contention over the control of Idlib between the Russia-Syria allied forces and the US and Turkish forces.

Serial Operations can be considered countermeasures against US’ withdrawal from INF Treaty

Aside from the large-scale military exercise organized by the Southern Military District, a formation of ships of Russia’s Pacific Fleet was spotted near the Miyako Strait, according to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. The formation consisted of seven ships, including corvettes Sovershennyy and Steregushchiy, three Tarantul-class guided missile corvettes and an oceangoing survey ship. The seven vessels passed through the Miyako Strait to enter the Sea of Okhotsk. This was the fourth time Russian military ships have cruised on relevant waters. It is clear that Russia’s military exercises were actually not confined to any certain direction.

On August 24, the Russian Navy launched Sieve and Bulava sea-based ballistic missiles from a nuclear submarine. An analysis of those signs reveals that the Russian military maintains a high-degree combat readiness. The primary reason is that no radical improvements have been achieved for the relationship between Russia and the west.

Besides, some wonder what countermeasures Russia would take against the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Dr. Li considers that the above-mentioned moves are part of the series of actions taken by Russia to handle the US quit from the INF Treaty. Just as Russian President VladimirPutin ever put it, Russia would definitely take countermeasures if the US withdrew from the INF Treaty. From the strategic perspective, the actions that Russia is taking are part of those countermeasures.

(The author Dr. Li Li, is a professor on military philosophy under the PLA’s National Defense University.)

Disclaimer: This article is originally published on military.cnr.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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