By Chen Yang

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not accepted the invitation to participate in the G7 leaders’ meeting sent by US President Donald Trump as Moscow needs to know more details about the upcoming summit to make a final decision, said Russian Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, according to a report on Russia’s RT TV on June 1. This is another uncertain factor encountered by Trump’s expansion of G7.

Earlier, Trump said that G7 could no longer represent the general trend of today’s world so that it will expand the list of participating countries. It is generally believed that Trump’s move has the intention of expanding G7. However, it seems that relevant countries did not actively respond to Trump’s proposal. German Federal Government spokesperson Steffen Seibert said on May 30 that considering the current overall situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, German Chancellor Angela Merkel could not promise to attend the meeting. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tactfully declined as this arrangement involves too many health and safety issues. French President Emmanuel Macron is “willing to go to the US, provided that (US) circumstances permit”, according to the Élysée Palace.

The severe pandemic situation in the US is an obvious reason for the hesitation ofG7 member states to attend the summit in the US.. At present, there have been more than six million cases of COVID-19 in the world, and the number of deaths in the US has exceeded 100,000, accounting for nearly one-third of the global deaths. The US also has more than 1.7 million confirmed cases. Against such a background, if leaders attend the G7 summit, it will not only increase their own risk of infection but also easily send wrong signals to the people—“encourage” them to go out. Also, during the pandemic, unilateralist practices by the US such as snapping up at a higher price or intercepting allies’ anti-pandemic supplies and the recent decision to withdraw from the WHO have planted seeds of discord among G7 members.

Of course, the pandemic is only a short-term factor leading to the discord among G7. Still, the differences within G7 reflect the long-term decline of G7’s influence and action from a deeper level.

First, the overall economic strength of G7 has been declining, making member states unable to do what they hope to do in international affairs. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the decline of G7’s international influence has become a recognized fact. G7’s share of global GDP has dropped from 68 percent in 1992 to 45 percent in 2018, while emerging economies have occupied half of the global GDP. G7’s capability has declined in formulating global economic policies and coordinating the macroeconomic policies of the world’s major economies.

Second, the policy of “America first” weakens the internal consistency of the G7. Although the G7 can still speak as a group on global economic and financial issues, it cannot propose specific solutions or reach consensus on any issues. Especially in recent years, the US government’s national priorities and trade protectionism have exacerbated this tendency. In fact, during the G7 leader video summit held on April 17, the US and the remaining six member states had big differences in treating the WHO.

Last, G7 failed to adapt to the changing trends of the global governance system. The G7, with huge economic strength, always held power to formulate international economic rules before the 2008 global financial crisis. However, with the deepening participation of emerging economies and developing countries in global governance, especially the rise of global and regional mechanisms such as G20, APEC, and BRICS, days are almost gone for G7 to play a dominant role on the world stage.

In fact, during the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, it is not difficult to see the gap between G7 and G20. For example, the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit held in late March announced to inject 5 trillion USD into the global economy in response to the pandemic. Since March, G20 has held three meetings of finance ministers and central bank governors, working intensively on formulating action plans to deal with the impact of COVID-19. Recently, G20 announced that it would delay the debt repayment of the world’s poorest countries by one year. It can be said that in terms of responding to the global pandemic situation, G20 has played its role to coordinate the efforts of countries to fight against the pandemic while G7 falls short.

The decline in overall economic power and the growing internal differences are the root cause of the decline of G7’s influence and action. Without resolving these old problems, trying to rely on capacity expansion to survive will only become an unrealistic dream after all.