Overview of international military conflicts and security situation in 2020

2020年国际军事斗争与安全形势回望

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Xu Yi
Time
2020-12-24 16:47:09

 

New changes in the pattern of combat

作战样式有了新变化

The change of combat patterns stems from scientific and technological innovations and has developed in real military battles. The new round of technological revolution, industrial revolution, and military revolution have developed by leaps and bounds in the past few years, and scientific and technological breakthroughs represented by unmanned and intelligent equipment and devices have come forth in large quantities, providing the technological support for the change of combat patterns. In the meantime, with the escalated strategic competition among major powers and constant military conflicts between small countries, technology, demand, and real combats have worked together to generate new changes in the pattern of combat.

作战样式变化源于科学技术创新,产生于军事斗争实践发展。近年来,新一轮技术革命、产业革命、军事革命迅猛发展,以无人、智能为代表的科学技术突破呈涌现态势,为作战方式变化提供了技术支撑。与此同时,大国战略竞争加剧,小国军事冲突迸发,技术、需求、实践三者共同催生作战样式发生新变化。

Extensive application of unmanned systems in real combats

无人系统广泛用于实战

The US military used unmanned systems in Afghan and Iraq, and the Russian military used them in Syria, but only in a limited scope with limited functions. This year's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, however, indicated that UAV is applied not only by major powers but also by middle-sized and small countries as a main weapon on the battlefield. As both of their air forces are of a small scale and equipped with old and outdated aircraft, Armenia and Azerbaijan didn't engage in traditional air battles during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but used UAVs on a large scale in an attempt to gain an edge on the battlefield, and the conflict, therefore, became the first local war in which UAVs were used massively. UAV's remarkable performance – the great survivability, low cost, flexibility, and multi-tasking capability – highlighted the potential of unmanned combat patterns.

过去,美军在阿富汗和伊拉克战场,俄军在叙利亚战场,也曾运用无人系统,但其功能作用和运用范围有限。今年的纳卡冲突表明,无人机不仅被世界大国,也被中小国家广泛采用,无人系统成为战场主要力量之一。在纳卡冲突中,亚阿双方空军规模小、机型老旧,难以进行传统意义上的空战,双方为谋求优势而大量使用无人机,纳卡冲突由此成为第一场大规模使用无人机的局部战争。无人机的不俗表现,其高生存能力、低成本性、灵活性、多种任务能力,凸显了无人作战样式的发展潜力。

Intelligent attack on high-value strategic targets

智能袭击高价值战略目标

This approach is perfectly demonstrated in two assassinations. On January 3, the US military assassinated Iranian leader Soleimani with the "MQ-9" UAV, which is able to fly at an altitude of thousands of meters, so ground personnel is unable to pinpoint its position. Fitted with multiple-detecting equipment, the UAV is also able to track and monitor the target for a long time and to actuate the attack at the best moment. On November 27, Iran's chief nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh was assassinated with a remotely controlled machine gun installed on a car, a move that was more advanced than what was adopted to kill Soleimani. Featuring a simple structure and low stature, this kind of unmanned ground systems can camouflage and hide according to the environment and cannot be detected by human eyes or visible light detecting devices. Events like these show that using unmanned systems to assassinate strategic targets has become an increasingly mature approach –Pandora's Box has been opened.

这一样式集中体现在两次袭击暗杀行动。1月3日,美军击杀伊朗将领苏莱曼尼。执行袭击任务的“MQ-9”无人机在数千米高空飞行,地面人员难以发现其在空阵位,且可搭载多种探测设备,能够长时间针对目标跟踪监视,可选择最佳时间发动攻击。11月27日,伊朗首席核科学法赫里扎德遭袭身亡,袭击行动由安装在汽车上的远程遥控机枪完成。这一做法,比击杀苏莱曼尼时的水平又进一步。这类地面无人系统,结构简单且外形低矮,可根据环境进行伪装和隐蔽,肉眼和可见光探测手段难以发现其伏击阵位。类似事件表明,运用无人系统袭杀战略目标的手段日趋成熟,“潘多拉魔盒”已经打开。

Driven by war demand and AI technology, unmanned combat systems such as UAV, unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), unmanned vessel, and unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) have seen eruptive growth, and intelligent new combat patterns such as unmanned cluster operation, man-machine combined operation, cloud operation, war of algorithm and cognitive war are also in full swing. AI is essential for accumulating basic combat advantages. It is not information technology, said Director of the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. The extensive application of AI in real combat is bringing revolutionary changes to the form of warfare.

在战争需求和人工智能技术驱动下,无人飞机、无人潜航器、无人舰艇、无人车辆等无人作战系统呈现爆炸式增长趋势,具有智能化特征的无人集群作战、人机混合作战、云作战、算法战、认知战等作战样式创新全面展开。美国国防部联合人工智能中心主任认为,“人工智能对于积累基本的作战优势至关重要,人工智能不是信息技术”,人工智能广泛用于实战正在为战争带来革命性变化。 

Faster development of new forces

新域新质力量发展提速

The capability of innovation is the core competence of a military force. With the ever fiercer international struggle, all countries are rushing to strengthen military innovations and seeking breakthroughs in new domains and new approaches.

创新能力是一支军队的核心竞争力。在国际斗争日趋激烈的背景下,各国都在加强军事创新,都在从新领域新手段中寻求突破。

Eruptive development of hypersonic weapons

高超声速手段呈井喷之势

The Russian military has made a head-start in this connection. On November 26, Russia again successfully fired the Zircon hypersonic missile from the frigate, Admiral Gorshkov and the Kazan nuclear submarine for a test. On December 13, the Russian Zvezda TV Station debuted the video images of the Avangard intercontinental ballistic missile, which Russian President Putin once said could penetrate America's missile defense system for its 20-times sound speed and gliding maneuverability. The Russian military plans to install Zircon hypersonic missile on its old and new vessels on a large scale and mass-produce Avangard.

在这方面,俄军一马当先。11月26日,俄罗斯从“戈尔什科夫海军元帅”号护卫舰和“喀山”号核潜艇上再次成功完成“锆石”高超声速导弹试射。12月13日,俄罗斯红星电视台首次播出了“先锋”高超声速洲际导弹视频画面,普京曾称该型导弹能以20倍音速飞行,具有滑翔机动能力,可突破美国的导弹防御系统。俄军计划为大量新老舰艇装上“锆石”高超声速导弹,量产“先锋”高超声速导弹。

The US military has accelerated its weapon experiment and testing and hopes to commission them at an early date. On March 19, the US military successfully test-launched a common hypersonic glide body (C-HGB), which is operable at sea, on land, and in air, from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Hawaii. On August 8, it carried out the captive-carry test of AGM-183 air-launched hypersonic missile, scheduled to become the first of its kind put into real combat by the US Air Force in 2022. In September, Astro America completed the research on the "Hypersonic Production Accelerator Facility" (HPAF) design, which will assist in the efficient mass production of hypersonic cruise missiles.

美军加速试验测试,推动尽早列装。3月19日,美军在夏威夷的太平洋武器试验场,成功进行一款海、陆、空“通用型高超声速滑翔体”发射和飞行测试。8月8日,美军进行空射型高超声速导弹AGM-183的机载飞行测试,计划于2022年成为首款美空军实战应用的高超声速武器。9月,美国应用科学与技术研究组织完成了“高超声速生产加速器设施”方案研究,推动高超声速巡航导弹高效量产。

Breakthroughs in laser weapon R&D

激光武器研发取得突破

The US military has invested hugely in laser weapon development and tested multiple laser systems on ships in 2020. On May 22, the US Navy Pacific Fleet announced that its amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland (LPD 27) tested a 150kw ship-borne solid-state laser weapon that accurately shot down a drone. To be able to install laser weapons, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is fitted with a large dual-wing structure on its stern. The US Navy plans to install new laser weapon systems on 7 warships in the next 3 years, while the US Army and Space Force are also developing laser weapons of different magnitude.

美军下大力气进行激光武器研发,2020年多套激光系统被搬到舰上测试。例如,5月22日,美国海军太平洋舰队声明,“波特兰”号两栖船坞运输舰进行了150千瓦的舰载固态激光武器试验,成功击毁无人机。为了安装激光武器,美军“福特”号航母在舰尾新增了大型箱形“两翼”结构。美国海军计划3年内为7艘军舰装上新型激光武器系统,美国陆军、太空军也在研发不同能量级的激光武器。

Heated nuclear race

核力量竞赛持续升温

Nuclear force has been given more importance amid the escalating strategic competition among major powers. The US has replenished its nuclear arsenal across the board and deployed low-yield nuclear weapons. At the beginning of this year, the US military announced that the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine had been equipped with the W76-2 low yield warhead, further lowering the threshold to use nuclear weapons.

大国战略竞争加剧背景下,核力量作用更加突出。美国全面加强核武库建设,并抓紧部署低当量核武器。今年初,美军宣布已在“俄亥俄”级战略核潜艇上部署W76-2低当量潜射导弹核弹头,标志着美国核武器使用门槛进一步降低。

Russia has also continuously strengthened its nuclear strategic capability. After the special-purpose, nuclear-powered submarine Belgorod fitted with the Poseidon UUV with a nuclear propulsion system and nuclear warhead came into service, its Khabarovsk nuclear submarine was also commissioned, each capable of carrying six Poseidon UUVs. On December 12, the Russian Pacific Fleet's strategic nuclear submarine launched four "Bulava" intercontinental-range, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, indicating the missile is ready for combat.

俄罗斯持续加强核战略能力。俄罗斯继搭载“波塞冬”核动力无人潜航器的特种核潜艇首艇“别尔哥罗德”号服役后,“哈巴罗夫斯克”号也已下水,两艘新型核潜艇可以各携带6个“波塞冬”核动力无人潜航器。12月12日,俄罗斯太平洋舰队战略核潜艇接连发射4枚“布拉瓦”潜射洲际弹道导弹,表明该型导弹具备作战能力。

Accelerated militarization of outer space

太空军事化进程加快

The US has notably reinforced its space development and space combat capability this year. In August, the US Space Force published its first doctrine called "Space Power". In October, the Space Operations Command was formed and tasked to train space forces and form war-preparedness. In November, the US Space Force released the first "Chief of Space Operations Planning Guidance" (CPG), put forth a string of new concepts such as orbital warfare, space cyber warfare, and space electromagnetic warfare, and actively built the Starlink and War Cloud systems, in a bid to accelerate the space-cyber-electronic integration. Other countries have also picked up speed in promoting the space military strengths. In May, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) established the country's first space force called the "Space Operations Squadron"; in September, the French Air Force was renamed the French Air and Space Force as it was shooting for the stars.

今年以来,美国太空开发和太空作战能力明显提升。8月,美国太空军颁布首份顶层条令《太空力量》。10月,成立太空作战司令部,主要职责是训练太空军部队,推动形成战备能力。11月,太空军推出首份《太空作战规划指南》,陆续抛出轨道战、太空网络战、太空电磁战等新概念,积极构建“星链”“战争云”体系,天网电一体化趋势加速。其他国家也在加快推进太空军事能力。5月,日本航空自卫队成立首支太空部队“宇宙作战队”。9月,法国空军更名为空天军,把目光投向更高、更远的太空。

Editor's note: The author Zhang Xiaotian is the director of the Institute of National Defense and Military Development Strategy, College of National Security, National Defense University, PLA. The authors Xu Zhidong and Zhang Weiping are associate professors at the College of National Security, National Defense University PLA.

(作者张啸天,系国防大学国家安全学院国防和军队发展战略教研室主任,徐志栋、张未平,系国防大学国家安全学院副教授)

Related News

Continue...