By Peng Xin and Cheng Cimin

彭辛　成次敏

It's been seven years since the crisis in Ukraine started and the situation gets tense from time to time. However, the Ukrainian government has never waged a large-scale war against the Eastern Ukraine civilian armed forces. Since February this year, the situation in the Eastern Ukraine region has become tense again. The Democratic establishment in the US has always regarded Russia as its old foe, while Ukraine seemed to see an opportunity to ride on US's coattails and wanted to show toughness against Russia in exchange for the support of the US since Joseph Biden took office.

乌克兰危机已持续7年，局势时紧时缓，但乌政府对乌东民间武装始终没有真正大规模兵戎相见。不过，今年2月以来，乌东地区局势再度紧张。美国的民主党建制派始终视俄罗斯为宿敌。拜登上台后，乌克兰似乎看到“抱大腿”的机会，想通过对俄展示强硬来换取美国的支持。

For the US, the existence of the Eastern Ukraine situation can make the European Union (EU) more dependent on the US for security and create obstacles to Russia-Europe relations. It would be more cost-effective to drive European countries to lead while weakening the strength of Russia and the EU. In other words, it is in the interests of the US that the situation in Eastern Ukraine is constantly fermenting but ultimately remains not resolved. Of course, the US will try its best to prevent the situation from backfiring. A few days ago, the US even cancelled the planned entry of two destroyers into the Black Sea, which was interpreted by the outside world as avoiding frontal confrontation with Russia.

对于美国而言，乌东局势这个“溃疡面”的存在可以使欧盟在安全上更加依赖美国，并给俄欧关系制造障碍。如果能驱使欧洲国家冲在前面，同时削弱俄罗斯与欧盟的实力则更为划算。换言之，乌东局势不断发酵却又最终得不到解决最符合美国的利益。当然，美国会尽可能避免事态扩大到引火烧身的地步。日前，美国甚至取消了2艘驱逐舰原定进入黑海的计划，被外界解读为避免同俄正面对抗。

For Russia, it is also in its best interest to maintain the status of "no unification and no independence" in Eastern Ukraine. Under the current circumstances, it is impossible for Russia to swallow the Eastern Ukraine region without a big fight with the West. However, it can use NATO's requirement that the newly joined member states have no territorial disputes to make a fuss about the situation in Eastern Ukraine and obstruct the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO. Therefore, after showing muscles and a tough stand, Russia pushed the boat along the current and gave Ukraine and the West an out.

对于俄罗斯而言，保持乌东地区“不统不独”的状态，也最符合自己的利益。当前情况下，俄罗斯不可能冒着同西方大打出手的风险吞下乌东地区。但其可以利用北约要求新加入的成员国没有领土争议问题的规定，在乌东局势上做文章，阻挠乌克兰加入北约的进程。所以，俄罗斯在秀了一波“肌肉”、展现了强硬立场后，便顺水推舟给了乌克兰及西方一个台阶下。

In contrast, the attitudes of European countries on the Ukrainian issue are more contradictory and divided. On the one hand, Europe has the internal motivation to accept more former Soviet republics in order to expand its security depth and strengthen their overall strength. On the other hand, Europe also fears Russia, who has a powerful armed force and nuclear arsenal. Compared with the US, European countries do not want direct armed conflict with Russia. Within Europe, compared with Eastern European countries that tend to be tough on Russia, the 'old European' countries such as France and Germany are more willing to improve EU-Russian relations due to their different security perceptions and overall consideration of European interests. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for Russia to withdraw its troops to ease the situation during a phone call with Vladimir Putin recently.

相比之下，欧洲国家在乌克兰问题上的态度更为矛盾和分裂。一方面，欧洲有接纳更多的原苏联加盟共和国来扩大安全纵深、增强欧洲整体实力的内在动因；另一方面，其对拥有强大武装力量及核武库的近邻俄罗斯也心有忌惮。相较美国而言，欧洲国家并不希望与俄罗斯发生直接的武装冲突。而在欧洲内部，相较于倾向对俄强硬的东欧国家，法德等“老欧洲”国家由于安全感知的不同及对欧洲利益的整体考虑，更愿意实现欧俄关系的改善。德国总理默克尔日前与普京通话时就呼吁俄罗斯撤军以缓和局势。

Ukraine knows the thoughts of outsiders but it cannot do much. Ukraine knows that it is impossible to regain the Eastern Ukraine region through war without the direct support of the West. Ukraine will lose everything if they are not careful. Its seemingly tough postures such as increasing troops to cater to the will of the US are largely out of desperation; otherwise it will be difficult to obtain substantial support from the US. However, it is precisely by seeing through the two faces of the US and NATO, as well as the true ideas of Russia, that Ukraine can make some bold but safe moves. It seemingly showed loyalty to the US in a reckless manner and relied on the retreat of the US and Europe to ease the tension it provoked without losing any dignity. This may be said to be a strategy, but it also reflects Ukraine's helplessness.

对于局外人的想法，乌克兰心知肚明却也无可奈何。乌克兰深知，在得不到西方直接支持的情况下，想通过战争的方式收复乌东地区无异于痴人说梦，稍有不慎便会满盘皆输。其迎合美国意志作出增兵等看似强硬的姿态，很大程度上也是身不由己，不然很难从美国捞到实质性的支持。不过，也正是看透了美国与北约的色厉内荏以及俄罗斯的真实想法，乌克兰才可以放心大胆地演出一场“狂飙戏”，看似莽撞地向美国交上“投名状”，并借着美欧的退缩，不失时机又有尊严地缓和自身挑起的紧张局势。这或许可以说是一种策略，其实也反映出乌克兰的无奈。