Why Biden visits Japan, ROK now?

拜登日韩之行的深意

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2022-05-24 17:33:45

赵明昊

By Zhao Minghao

美国总统拜登展开上任后的首次亚洲之行,访问韩国和日本,并参加在东京举行的美日印澳四边机制(Quad)第二次线下峰会。拜登此行是美国落实其印太战略的重要举措,体现了俄乌冲突背景下美国继续推动战略重心东移的决心。美国与日本、韩国等盟友的关系正经历深刻的转型。

Biden’s first Asian visit as US president brought him to the ROK and Japan, and he participated in the second in-person Quad summit in Tokyo. An important part of the US efforts to push its Indo-Pacific Strategy, the trip reflects America’s resolve to continue moving its strategic gravity eastward against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which witnesses profound changes in its relationship with allies like Japan and the ROK.

实施印太战略,是美国推进对华战略竞争的重要抓手。应看到,俄乌冲突虽然对拜登政府落实印太战略的节奏有所影响,但难以改变美国聚焦印太、压制中国的深层意图。新美国安全中心主席理查德·方丹(Richard Fontaine)认为,俄乌冲突对于美国转向印太短期不利,但长期看是有益的。所谓“有益”,首要的是指美国与印太地区盟友之间的关系会变得更加紧密。日本和韩国是美国的条约盟友,两国外交和安全政策都在俄乌冲突背景下呈现重大调整,这为美国拉紧日韩、谋局印太、施压中国提供了机遇和空间。

Implementing the Indo-Pacific Strategy is a vital part of America’s strategic competition against China. Clearly, while Washington’s execution of the strategy has been affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, its determination to focus on the Indo-Pacific region and suppress China is not. Richard Fontaine, Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), held that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may hinder America’s shift of focus in the short term but is helpful in the long run, primarily because the relationship between America and its regional allies will be closer. Both Japan and ROK adjusted their diplomatic and security policies considerably amid the ongoing conflict, which creates the opportunity and space for America to bring them further to its side and make deployments in the Indo-Pacific to suppress China.

近年,美日同盟持续深化,尤其是双方利用台湾问题大做文章,不断强化军事协同。俄乌冲突发生后,日本政府紧随美国步调,对俄罗斯实施多轮制裁,并渲染亚太地区的紧张气氛。岸田政府希借俄乌冲突巩固其在国内的执政地位,并推进其强化日本“进攻性军事能力”等目标。自民党内部已提出,需将日本的军费开支占GDP比例提升至2%。前首相安倍晋三等人表示,美国应将“核共享”政策用于美日同盟,在日本部署战术核武器。

The US-Japan alliance has been continuously strengthened in recent years, especially as the two countries keep reinforcing military coordination around the Taiwan question. After the Russian-Ukraine conflict broke out, the Japanese government joined the sanctions against Russia at America’s heels and lost no time in hyping up the tension in Asia Pacific. Its Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) already proposed to increase Japan’s military spending to 2% of GDP, and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other politicians argued that the US should apply the “nuclear sharing” policy to the alliance with Japan and deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the country.

着眼于应对所谓台海冲突,日本正在不断加强西南诸岛的军事部署,力图发展“对敌基地攻击能力”。美国寻求在日部署陆基短程和中程导弹,并希望能够仿照美韩同盟那样,建立美日联合司令部,从而实现两国军事上的更大一体化。此外,美日军队围绕“远征前沿基地作战”(EABO)等新作战概念增强演习力度。2022年3月,美日两军首次举行联合空降登陆突击演习。

In preparation for a so-called conflict at the Taiwan Strait, Japan is ramping up military deployments on its southwestern islands and trying hard to possess the enemy base attack capabilities. The US, on the other hand, seeks to deploy land-based short-range and medium-range missiles in Japan and build a US-Japan Joint Command like with ROK, thus further cementing their military interoperability. Moreover, the militaries of the two countries enhanced the intensity of their exercises around such new combat concepts as Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO). The first joint airborne landing exercise took place in March 2022.

与此同时,日本还在美国的印太战略布局中扮演着“关键枢纽”的角色。日本是美日印澳四边机制、美日澳三边机制、美日印三边机制等重要成员,它俨然是美国在印太地区的“副警长”。近年来,日本与澳大利亚、印度、菲律宾等国的军事安全关系也在不断升级。

At the same time, Japan, being a key member of the Quad and the US-Japan-Australia and US-Japan-India trilateral mechanisms, is a “pivot” – somewhat like a deputy sheriff – in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. It has kept upgrading its military and security relations with Australia, India, and the Philippines in recent years.

在美韩同盟方面,拜登政府将韩国新总统尹锡悦的上台视为进一步拉紧韩国的重要契机。尹锡悦明确提出购置部署萨德系统、扩大核威慑、加强美日韩三边关系、加入美日印澳四边机制等主张。美国此前已经决定终止《美韩导弹指南》,取消对韩国发展导弹射程和载荷的限制,允许韩国开发中远程导弹,此举针对中国的意味很强。

Regarding the alliance with ROK, the Biden administration took the election of ROK’s new President Yoon Suk-Yeol as a great opportunity to tighten the ties, and Yoon, quite cooperatively, announced his plan to buy and deploy the THAAD system, expand nuclear deterrence, strengthen the trilateral relations with US and Japan, and join the Quad. Previously the US decided to end the US– ROK Missile Guidelines and lift the limits on the range and payload of Seoul’s missile development, allowing it to develop missiles of intermediate and long range, a move obviously targeted at China.

此外,美国将台湾问题纳入美韩同盟议程的动向值得高度警惕。2021年5月拜登和文在寅发表的联合声明提出,美韩同盟应成为“地区及世界秩序关键轴心”,并特意提及“维护台海和平”。驻韩美军司令保罗·拉卡梅拉(Paul LaCamera)曾宣称,驻韩美军已经摆脱了防御韩国的传统作用,在其他国家或地区发生危机时,可以具备“战略灵活性”。

Moreover, America’s tendency to include the Taiwan question in the agenda for the US-ROK alliance calls for a high alert. The joint statement by Biden and Moon Jae-in released in May 2021 stated that their partnership should serve “as a linchpin for the regional and global order”, and emphasized the “importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. General Paul J. LaCamera, Commander of US Forces Korea, once said that US Forces stationed in ROK have assumed more duties than their traditional role of defending the host country, and may demonstrate strategic flexibility at times of crisis in other countries or regions.

值得注意的是,韩国国内还出现调整核政策以及支持美国在韩部署核武器的呼声。此外,2021年9月美英澳三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)建立,美国允诺帮助澳大利亚获得核动力潜艇。韩国方面对此非常羡慕,希望美国能够考虑向韩国提供类似支持。

It’s worth noting that there are voices within the ROK calling for adjusting the nuclear policy and supporting America’s deployment of nuclear weapons in the country. Seoul was also jealous of Australia, who got America’s promise to help it develop nuclear-powered submarines through the establishment of AUKUS in September 2021, and wished for similar support from Washington.

显然,日韩在军事领域的政策调整,将给东北亚和整个亚太地区的安全局势增加更多复杂因素。日本、韩国还将受邀参加下个月在西班牙马德里召开的北约峰会,美国试图让这两个盟友成为“北约亚太化”的重要推手。总之,拜登的日韩之行大有深意,美国的印太战略并没有因俄乌冲突而停滞,中国周边外交环境面临新的严峻考验。

Japan and the ROK’s adjustment of military policies will add more complexities to the security situation in Northeast Asia – even the entire Asian-Pacific region. They will also participate in the NATO Summit to be held in Spain’s Madrid next month, as the US wants them to be its hatchet men to push NATO’s expansion to Asia-Pacific. In sum, there are too many complexities and considerations behind Biden’s visit to Japan and ROK. The US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy isn’t stalled by the Russian-Ukraine conflict, and China is facing new and grave diplomatic challenges in its surrounding environment.

作者:赵明昊,复旦大学国际问题研究院研究员

(The author is a research fellow at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University)

Editor's Note: This article is originally published on cn.chinausfocus.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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