陈洋

By Chen Yang

在日本第26届国会参议院选举中，修宪势力在参议院获得超过三分之二多数议席。鉴于修宪问题将成为日本国内政治的重要议题，作为日本首相的岸田文雄今后将如何引领日本国家发展方向，无疑令人关注。

In Japan's 26th house election, the pro-constitutional revision forces have secured more than two-thirds seats in the house. Given that the issue of the constitution revision will be an important issue in its domestic politics, Japan will undoubtedly attract much attention as to how Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will lead Japan's national development in the future.

通常而言，参议院的存在感不如众议院，日本民众对参议院选举的投票热情往往低于众议院选举。但根据日本总务省发布的信息，6月23日至7月9日共有1961万3956人参与投票，较3年前的参议院选举增加了255万余人，创下日本参议院选举历史最高投票纪录。

Japan's upper house is generally less visible than the lower house, and the Japanese people tend to be less enthusiastic about voting in the upper house election thereby. However, according to information released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan (MIC), a total of 19,613,956 people voted from June 23 to July 9, an increase of more than 2.55 million compared with three years ago in the upper house election, reaching a historical high.

借由此次参议院选举，岸田文雄进一步夯实执政根基。自就任首相以来，岸田文雄先是率领执政党赢得了去年10月的众议院选举，而此次又继续率领执政党赢得参议院选举。这一方面意味着，岸田政府今后在参众两院提出预算、立法以及人事任命等将不会受到在野党在国会层面的掣肘，施政效率将大幅提高。另一方面，只要不提前解散众议院，那么日本今后3年将不会再有全国大型选举，岸田文雄将迎来一个相对稳定的执政环境。不论是从国会层面，还是从自民党内部来看，岸田文雄未来政策制定与实施的自主性将大为提高。

With the election, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has further consolidated the foundation of governance. Since taking office, Fumio Kishida, first of all, led the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition to win the lower house election in October last year, and then this time to win the upper house election. This means that on the one hand, the Kishida government will not be constrained by the opposition parties from the perspective of the National Diet of Japan in proposing budgets, legislation, or personnel appointments in the upper and lower houses, and governance efficiency will be greatly improved. On the other hand, as long as the lower house is not dissolved in advance, there will be no major national elections in Japan in the next three years, and the Kishida government is to usher in a relatively stable ruling environment. Both from the perspective of the National Diet and the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition, the Kishida government is bound to have higher autonomy in the formulation and implementation of policies in the future.

在获得相对稳定的执政环境后，岸田文雄将如何引领日本国家发展方向备受关注。经过此次选举后，支持修宪的势力（自民党、公明党、日本维新会和国民民主党）在参议院的席位数达到179个，超过了248个总席位的三分之二。由于修宪势力在众议院也拥有三分之二以上的席位，所以日本国会将可启动修宪的程序。

With the relatively stable ruling environment, how Kishida Fumio will lead Japan's national development has attracted much attention. After the election, the pro-constitution revision parties (including the LDP, Komeito, Japan Restoration Party and Democratic Party for the People) have taken 179 seats in the upper house, more than two-thirds of the 248 total. Since the pro-constitution revision forces also have more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house, the National Diet of Japan has been able to start the process of amending the constitution.

日本现行的和平宪法规定了日本不能拥有军队，并放弃“发动战争的权利”。然而，日本近年来反复否定和美化侵略战争，特别是在俄乌冲突爆发后，不是借机炒作所谓的周边安全威胁来谋求将防卫预算提升至GDP的2%以上，就是主动配合美国的地缘政治战略在亚太地区拉帮结伙、耀武扬威，挑起地区紧张态势。

Japan has maintained a pacifist constitution that stipulates that "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained", and" the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation". Japan, however, has repeatedly denied and beautified its war of aggression in recent years, especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It has taken the opportunity to hype up the so-called peripheral security threat to seek to ramp up its defense budget to more than 2 percent of GDP, and taken the initiative to cooperate with the US geopolitical strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, ganging up, all bluff and bluster, stoking up regional tensions.

因此，岸田政府今后一旦启动修宪，甚至最终完成修宪的话，那么将很有可能再次将日本引入对外军事扩张的歧途。日本“继承和发展村山谈话会”理事长藤田高景认为，“那些主张修改宪法的人企图破坏和平宪法第九条。这一动向会引起邻近各国对日本的担忧和警惕，是与构建亚洲和平背道而驰的愚蠢行为，我表示强烈反对。”

Therefore, once the Kishida government starts to revise the constitution in the future, or even when it completes the revision, it is very likely to lead Japan into the wrong path of foreign military expansion again. Takajing Fujita, Chairman of Japan's Inheritance and Development Murayama Talk, believed that "those who advocate constitution revision are trying to undermine Article 9 of the pacifist constitution. This move will arouse concern and vigilance against Japan in neighboring countries and is foolish as going against building peace in Asia. I strongly oppose it."

日媒普遍将岸田文雄未来没有全国大型选举的3年执政期称之为“黄金3年”。然而，这3年最终会变成推进实现修宪的“黄金3年”，还是致力于改善日本社会民生、增进民众福祉的“黄金3年”，日本政府需要作出明智抉择。

Japanese media generally refer to the ruling period of the Kishida government with no major national elections as the "three golden years". However, it is yet to be seen whether the three years will eventually become the "three golden years" for promoting the constitution revision, or the "three golden years" dedicated to improving Japanese society and people's well-being. The Japanese government needs to make a wise choice.

Editor's Note: This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.