American media recently reported that the German defense leader vowed to work closely with France to step up their maritime surveillance and anti-submarine combat capability. Earlier on French officials decided to back out of the joint development of a new type of marine patrol aircraft with Germany in response to Berlin's plan to purchase five US-made Boeing P-8 Poseidon. What makes Germany come back to develop the new type of anti-submarine aircraft with France now?
According to military observer Liang Yongchun, an important reason for Germany's change of mind is that it wants to resist America's infiltration and control through the joint R&D project.
Nailed during the ILA Berlin Air Show in 2018, the project co-invested by France and Germany with the results shared by both sides is an important part of the two countries' efforts to build an independent defense system for the EU. Things hit a bump in June 2021 when Berlin suddenly announced its decision to purchase five P-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft from the US on the grounds that the co-development with France went too slowly. Paris was furious, but it knew perfectly well that the US was behind the scene, just like what it did with the Australian submarine deal. But there was nothing it could do, so France had to announce a Plan B – instead of working with Germany, it continued to develop its own anti-submarine patrol aircraft independently based on its Falcon 10X business jet.
Now things have taken another turn and Germany wants to pick up what it left halfway and start over again. The timing cannot be more subtle. Ever since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the US, on the pretext of standing up against Russia together, has cut off the energy cooperation between Moscow and the EU, which is ruining Europe's industrial system at root. Germany, the largest industrialized country in Europe, has borne the brunt but doesn't dare say a word. Restarting the co-development of anti-submarine aircraft with France at such a moment is an attempt by Germany to save its own military industry and in a way shake off the tight control from Washington.
Liang Yongchun holds that France will most likely accept Germany's gesture either out of political, economic or military considerations.
Militarily, France's Plan B is to develop its own anti-submarine aircraft based on a business jet, which can only carry very limited reconnaissance and combat devices, given its small size and loading capacity. In comparison, the new-type anti-submarine patrol aircraft co-developed by Paris and Berlin uses Airbus A-320 as the basic platform, whose performance and parameters are as good as America’s Boeing 737, the platform for P-8 Poseidon. As a result, the next-generation anti-submarine aircraft jointly developed by the two countries will definitely have a superior combat performance over France's Plan B.
Politically, the joint development of military equipment by two European leaders is highly symbolic. Economically, if the co-development succeeds, the product will be able to tap the market of other European markets for profit. All in all, Germany's turnaround is a good thing for France in every sense.
According to Liang, however, as it would be very hard for Europe to break away from America's control under the latter's military hegemonism, the Germany-France cooperation in the future anti-submarine aircraft won't be plain sailing.
From a military perspective, Washington asks all its allies to buy American weapons and equipment allegedly to improve interoperability, so they can operate each other's weapons, including anti-submarine patrol aircraft. The US has long demanded its allies buy the P-8 Poseidon, which enables itself to assign the allies’ anti-submarine aircraft to any sea areas around the world at any time, incorporate them in its own combat system, and have them carry out anti-submarine patrol and combat tasks as it requires.
From a technical perspective, as the overall performance of the jointly developed anti-submarine aircraft is as good as that of America's P-8 Poseidon, Washington won't just sit and watch such a strong competitor grow. Instead, it would try every means to nip it in the bud. Even if the two European countries carry it through against pressure, the US would demand that all the recording and reconnaissance equipment and weapon systems onboard the new aircraft be American-made and using American standards. In that case, military independence for Europe would still be out of the question, and all that Germany and France can gain from the project is just on the economic front.
But Germany can still use it as a bargaining chip against the US. The co-development project can also serve as a touchstone of the EU's strengths. If the project fails, that will lend a heavy blow to the French and German military industries and reduce the EU to depend even more heavily on the US, politically, economically, and militarily. That doesn't bode well for Europe.
Editor's note: Originally published on cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
